MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1660
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0101 PM CDT TUE JUL 05 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...VA/NC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 051801Z - 051930Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH
   MOST INTENSE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. A WW IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED.
   
   APPEARS TWO REGIMES MAY FOCUS CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
   SEVERE STORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE FIRST IS ALONG AND E
   OF A PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM JUST W OF MRB TO W OF RIC TO E
   OF RWI. A VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS HAS DEVELOPED
   E OF THIS BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN TSTM
   ACTIVITY FROM NEAR RIC TO W OF ORF TO E OF RWI. MOREOVER...MORE SLY
   SURFACE WINDS OVER ERN VA/NC WHEN COUPLED WITH MODEST /I.E. 20-25
   KT/ WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS RESULTING IN A VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH
   30-35 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. GIVEN THIS
   ENVIRONMENT...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE
   OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS. WHILE SOME HAIL IS POSSIBLE...RELATIVELY
   HIGH WBZH OF 12-13 KFT WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE MELTING.
   
   THE SECOND REGIME IS FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN VA/NC EWD INTO
   THE PIEDMONT REGION WHERE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL
   EXIST AHEAD OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO ERN KY/TN. WHILE
   DEWPOINTS AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY ARE COMPARATIVELY LOWER THAN
   POINTS TO THE E...FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAK
   DISTURBANCE SHOULD HELP FOCUS INCREASING STORM COVERAGE INTO THE
   PIEDMONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY COOLER MID-LEVEL
   TEMPERATURES MAY SUPPORT A GREATER THREAT OF ISOLATED HAIL WITH
   THESE STORMS...IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   ..MEAD.. 07/05/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...GSP...
   
   35468160 36638141 37867980 38127851 38217716 37297630
   35827657 34867699 34097831 34847992