MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1543
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0337 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN DAKOTAS/MN
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 553...
   
   VALID 292037Z - 292130Z
   
   SEVERE THREAT IS INCREASING NORTHEAST/EAST OF WW 553.  WW 553 IS
   BEING REPLACED WITH NEW TORNADO WW 554.
   
   CONSOLIDATION OF ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMANATING FROM THE
   SOUTHWESTERN U.S...AND ANOTHER FROM THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN
   REGION...CONTINUES FROM THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN
   PLAINS.  SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ASSOCIATED WITH EVOLVING UPPER SYSTEM
   IS NOW UNDERWAY...WITH LOW CENTER NOW BELOW 1000 MB EAST/NORTHEAST
   OF ABERDEEN SD.  SHEAR PROFILES ALONG STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY
   LOW-LEVEL JET EAST OF CYCLONE HAVE BECOME STRONG THROUGH MUCH OF
   MINNESOTA...AND RAPID DESTABILIZATION IS UNDERWAY AS MOIST WARM
   SECTOR ADVECTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY.
   
   CLUSTER OF STORMS CONTINUES TO EVOLVE ALONG WARM FRONT JUST EAST OF
   SURFACE LOW...WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT INCREASING/INTENSIFYING SOUTHWARD
   AHEAD OF PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH NOW APPROACHING THE SOUTH
   DAKOTA/MINNESOTA BORDER.  GIVEN FAVORABLE FORCING...LARGE SEVERE
   MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM APPEARS LIKELY TO EVENTUALLY EVOLVE THIS
   EVENING ACROSS MINNESOTA.  SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING HOW
   FAST TRANSITION WILL OCCUR FROM ISOLATED SUPERCELL THREAT...BUT
   THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT STILL SEEMS LIKELY TO SUPPORT
   RISK FOR TORNADOES...BEFORE BROADER SCALE WIND THREAT BECOMES
   PREDOMINANT LATER THIS EVENING
   
   ..KERR.. 06/29/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...
   
   46299765 47429702 47429473 45969404 44219478 43539602
   43909664