MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1517
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1137 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN NEB...EXTREME S-CENTRAL
   SD...S-CENTRAL/SWRN IA...EXTREME NRN MO...N-CENTRAL KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 541...543...
   
   VALID 280437Z - 280600Z
   
   WEAKENING TREND NOTED WITH ACTIVITY MOVING EWD ALONG SD/NEB
   BORDER...AND LACK OF REINTENSIFICATION OR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
   WITHIN NEXT 1-2 HOURS MAY PROMPT CANCELLATION OF WW 543 BEFORE
   SCHEDULED 9Z EXPIRATION.  OTHERWISE...SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF
   STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS IN AND NEAR WWS AS OF 415Z...WITH ELEVATED
   BUOYANCY SUFFICIENT ACROSS MOST OF REGION TO SUPPORT CONTINUED
   SEVERE POTENTIAL.
   
   SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER IA MCS NOW
   EXTENDING FROM NWRN IL ACROSS N-CENTRAL MO NWWD INTO VICINITY OF
   CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN ANCHORED OVER CASS COUNTY NEB FOR SEVERAL
   HOURS...PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD REPORTS AS WELL AS
   AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.  OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTS WARM
   FRONT AND WIND SHIFT LINE THERE...WITH FRONT EXTENDING WSWWD ACROSS
   NWRN KS.  BULK OF CONVECTION WILL REMAIN N OF FRONT WHERE ISENTROPIC
   ASCENT IS STRONGEST ON NRN PORTION OF BROAD/30-40 KT LLJ.  THAT
   REGIME IS RELATIVELY MOIST...SUPPORTING ELEVATED MUCAPES 2000-3000
   J/KG AMIDST 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR AS DETERMINED FROM MODIFIED
   RAOBS...RUC SOUNDINGS AND PROFILER DATA.  MUCAPE DECREASES WITH EWD
   EXTENT INTO SRN IA ATOP OUTFLOW POOL...HOWEVER ELEVATED WAA MAY
   SUPPORT ENOUGH BUOYANCY FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL FROM MOST INTENSE
   CELLS. ADDITIONAL WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM OVER SRN IA.
   
   STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS MAY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS OVER PORTIONS
   N-CENTRAL KS BETWEEN RSL-HLC-CNK...IN ENVIRONMENT OF FAVORABLE
   STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW...STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPES
   1500-2000 J/KG.  MEANWHILE...CLUSTER OF SEVERE TSTMS ENTERING WRN
   PORTIONS WW 541 MAY MAINTAIN SEVERE THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF S-CENTRAL
   NEB GIVEN FAVORABLE AIR MASS IN FOREGOING INFLOW REGION.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 06/28/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...
   
   40419522 40249671 39919700 39099743 38889766 38759804
   38799875 39469966 40060028 40660142 41130114 41800087
   43450070 43459815 41969832 42159520 42119437 41909337
   41559286 40979259 40369278 40319422