MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1484
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0138 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/CENTRAL NM
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 261838Z - 262045Z
   
   CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY OVER THE
   GALLINAS AND SAN MATEO MTNS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER
   VALLEY...AND ALSO OVER THE CENTRAL AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS AND
   ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. ISOLATED DMGG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE
   ANTICIPATED WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS BY 20Z. A GREATER SVR THREAT
   MAY OCCUR AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS EWD INTO THE ERN PLAINS LATER THIS
   AFTERNOON AND THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
   
   LAST NIGHT/EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAS SENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WELL
   WEST TO NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE OVER CENTRAL NM. 12Z SOUNDING
   FROM ABQ INDICATED MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES FROM 1000-1500
   J/KG/ WOULD BE REALIZED THIS AFTERNOON...EVEN AS DEEP MIXING
   CONTINUES TO OCCUR. LOW LEVEL SELY FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE
   MAINTAINED OVER THE ERN PLAINS OF NM AS PRESSURE FALLS CONTINUE
   AHEAD OF WRN NM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AROUND 30 KTS OF MID LEVEL
   FLOW...COMBINED WITH SELY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WOULD
   ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS OVER THE
   ECENTRAL/SERN NM HIGH PLAINS. FURTHER WEST...VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW
   SHOULD AID IN GREATER MIXING. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAKER DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR WOULD FAVOR ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS AS THE MOST LIKELY SVR
   THREAT OVER THE RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 06/26/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...
   
   35040739 35840718 36500508 36300396 35680322 34450336
   33090358 32990409 32960562 33970735