MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1089
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0105 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...E CENTRAL NM...SWRN TX PANHANDLE AND W CENTRAL TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 311805Z - 312000Z
   
   STORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER EXTREME NERN NM ON NRN FRINGE OF
   INSTABILITY AXIS THAT EXTENDS SSEWD THRU W TX. TORNADO WATCH COULD
   BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS ACROSS THE REGION.
   
   LATEST SURFACE MESOANALYSIS INDICATES DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER W
   CENTRAL TX/EXTREME SERN NM.  SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPR 50S TO
   MID 60S ARE ADVECTING NWWD ALONG A BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS NWD FROM
   THE LOW INTO NERN NM.  THIS IS ALSO WHERE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO
   DESTABILIZE WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG.  IN ADDITION...
   RUC MODEL DATA OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS IS CONSISTENT IN PLACING LOW
   LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR AND INCREASING THERMAL
   GRADIENT/WARN ADVECTION.  VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE CLEARLY
   BAND OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING ESEWD S OF ABQ IN ASSOCIATION
   WITH EXIT REGION OF 90-95 KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK.  STRONG UPPER
   LEVEL DIVERGENCE COMBINED WITH SURFACE TROUGH WILL LEAD TO INCREASED
   CONVERGENCE OVER ERN NM NEXT FEW HOURS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
   STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
   
   RUC MODEL HAS BEEN STRONGLY INDICATING DEVELOPMENT OF ENHANCED UVVS
   ON AN AXIS FROM RTN - TCC - LBB DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.  RUC
   MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW CAP IS MUCH WEAKER NOW WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES
   OF 8 TO 8.5C/KM AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 55-60 KT.  THIS INDICATES
   CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
   ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS THIS AREA.
   
   ..MCCARTHY.. 05/31/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
   
   35130447 36000399 35890291 35270172 34740101 33560068
   31700129 31360280 33500419 34370442