MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0970
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1253 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN OK...SWRN AR AND EXTREME NERN TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 231753Z - 231930Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN
   SERN OK AND INTO THE ARKLATEX AREA WITH A HAIL THREAT. AREA IS
   BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
   
   LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR PICTURES SHOW A MCV NEAR ADM MOVING ESEWD AT
   35-40 KT THROUGH SRN OK. RECENT WIND PROFILES AT OKC AND TUL ALSO
   SHOW STRONG VEERING IN THE LOWER 3 KM...WHICH SUPPORT WARM
   ADVECTION/LIFT ABOVE A CAPPING INVERSION LOCATED AROUND 850 MB.
   ALTHOUGH THESE STORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY TO TAP INTO THE BOUNDARY
   LAYER...STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE INVERSION ARE RESULTING IN
   MUCAPES UP TO 1500 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY AND THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
   ABOVE THE CAPPING INVERSION APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR ELEVATED
   THUNDERSTORMS WITH A HAIL THREAT.
   
   ..IMY.. 05/23/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
   
   34089651 35319631 35529541 35239434 34089338 33169359
   33499532