MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0965
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0231 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS/NERN OK/SWRN MO/NWRN AR
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 312...
   
   VALID 230731Z - 230830Z
   
   DAMAGING WIND THREAT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS NERN OK AND
   NWRN AR. A REPLACEMENT WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT
   HOUR OR SO.
   
   REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT EVOLVING MCS HAS STARTED TO
   FORWARD-PROPAGATE ALONG ORGANIZING COLD POOL FROM NOWATA COUNTY OK
   INTO BENTON COUNTY AR WITH A SSEWD MOTION OF 35-40 KTS. RUC
   MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS ACROSS E-CNTRL OK
   INTO W-CNTRL AR REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
   MUCAPES OF 2000-3000 KT. GIVEN THIS INSTABILITY AND ENHANCED
   LOW-LEVEL STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW OWING TO INCREASED SYSTEM
   MOTION...EXPECT MCS AND INHERENT DAMAGING WIND THREAT TO DEVELOP SWD
   INTO FAR E-CNTRL OK AND W-CNTRL/CNTRL AR BY 10-11Z.
   
   MEANWHILE...WRN EXTENSION OF MCS REMAINS ANCHORED NEAR ICT AS A
   RESULT OF SUBSEQUENT BACKBUILDING DEVELOPMENT WITH LARGE HAIL BEING
   THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. COLD POOL INTENSIFICATION COUPLED
   WITH VEERING LLJ MAY SUPPORT MORE FORWARD PROPAGATION AND INCREASING
   WIND THREAT INTO PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL OK OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
   
   ..MEAD.. 05/23/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...
   
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