Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jul 7, 2024
Updated: Sun Jul 7 08:43:02 UTC 2024
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Wed, Jul 10, 2024 - Thu, Jul 11, 2024
D7
Sat, Jul 13, 2024 - Sun, Jul 14, 2024
D5
Thu, Jul 11, 2024 - Fri, Jul 12, 2024
D8
Sun, Jul 14, 2024 - Mon, Jul 15, 2024
D6
Fri, Jul 12, 2024 - Sat, Jul 13, 2024
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 070841
SPC AC 070841
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance is in general agreement that a mid-level
trough will de-amplify while shifting northeast into New England
through the mid to late-week time-frame, before upper ridging builds
over much of the CONUS by next weekend. For Days 4-6 (Wednesday -
Friday), stronger mid-level flow may overspread a moist and unstable
airmass, potentially supporting the development of isolated strong
thunderstorms. However, any coverage of severe appears too sparse to
highlight with probabilities this far in advance.
While there is disagreement in timing among medium-range guidance
members, the ECMWF and GFS have a pronounced mid-level impulse and
associated 500 mb wind maxima pivoting around the mid-level ridge
across the Northern Plains and Great Lakes area sometime around next
weekend. Rich low-level moisture beneath a deep-layer of steep lapse
rates from an EML plume will foster strong to extreme instability
along the periphery of the upper ridge, ahead of the mid-level
impulse. It is plausible that one or more severe thunderstorm
episodes could unfold if the glancing mid-level impulse can provide
enough deep-layer ascent for convective initiation. Of particular
concern would be if upscale growth into bow-echo MCSs could occur,
as is climatologically favorable for this time of year. However,
such events are also notoriously difficult to predict this far in
advance, and when considering the disagreement of the placement of
synoptic-scale features between medium-range guidance, no severe
probabilities have been introduced this outlook.
..Squitieri.. 07/07/2024
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