Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jul 3, 2024
Updated: Wed Jul 3 08:41:03 UTC 2024
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Sat, Jul 06, 2024 - Sun, Jul 07, 2024
D7
Tue, Jul 09, 2024 - Wed, Jul 10, 2024
D5
Sun, Jul 07, 2024 - Mon, Jul 08, 2024
D8
Wed, Jul 10, 2024 - Thu, Jul 11, 2024
D6
Mon, Jul 08, 2024 - Tue, Jul 09, 2024
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 030839
SPC AC 030839
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0339 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Mid-Atlantic...
For Saturday, severe thunderstorms are possible for parts of the
Mid-Atlantic as the upper-level trough moves northeastward through
the northern portion of the region. A cold front/surface trough
pendant to the surface low in southeastern Canada will be the focus
for convection by the afternoon. Models differ in the
strength/position of the surface low as well as the degree of
destabilization due to cloud cover.
...Central/southern High Plains...
With the broad trough to the north, the surface boundary is expected
to generally stall within the southern Plains and arc northwest into
the central/southern High Plains vicinity. Northwest flow aloft, on
Saturday and becoming stronger on Sunday, will promote some
potential for severe thunderstorm development. Both the GFS and
ECMWF hint at possible MCS development both days, but differ fairly
substantially on the details. Sunday would appear to have greater
potential given that the upper trough will dig into the southern
High Plains.
...South Texas...
As TC Beryl continues north-northwestward, an increase in severe
weather potential may accompany its circulation as it eventually
impacts parts of South Texas. Per latest NHC forecasts, this could
occur as soon as this Sunday. However, uncertainty on the exact
positioning and strength of this activity is too high at this time
for highlights.
..Wendt.. 07/03/2024
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