Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Apr 30, 2024
Updated: Tue Apr 30 08:52:02 UTC 2024
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Fri, May 03, 2024 - Sat, May 04, 2024
D7
Mon, May 06, 2024 - Tue, May 07, 2024
D5
Sat, May 04, 2024 - Sun, May 05, 2024
D8
Tue, May 07, 2024 - Wed, May 08, 2024
D6
Sun, May 05, 2024 - Mon, May 06, 2024
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 300850
SPC AC 300850
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Models are in good agreement on Friday/D4 showing an upper trough
lifting north out of the upper MS Valley and across western Ontario,
with a deep upper low moving south just off the coastal Pacific
Northwest. High pressure will exist over the Plains in the wake of
the northern trough, and is forecast to persist into Saturday/D5 as
a secondary lobe rotates the parent Ontario low. While a moist air
mass over the southern Plains and Gulf Coast will support
thunderstorms during this period, little organization or shear is
forecast.
From Sunday/D6 onward, spread becomes large amongst the model
ensembles, especially in regard to the West Coast low and possible
trough amplification as it moves ashore. That said, the overarching
theme through D8 and perhaps beyond is for rising heights across the
East, and a mean trough across the West, which may eventually prove
favorable for moisture return, large-scale ascent and shear across
parts of the central CONUS. Some models such as the ECMWF suggest a
multi-day period of very strong to extreme instability, as well as
southwest flow aloft across the central and southern Plains toward
the MS Valley. While predictability is low that far out, the
evolution of this pattern will be watched closely.
..Jewell.. 04/30/2024
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
weather.gov 
@NWSSPC
