Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Mar 3, 2017
Updated: Fri Mar 3 09:15:03 UTC 2017
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Mon, Mar 06, 2017 - Tue, Mar 07, 2017
D7
Thu, Mar 09, 2017 - Fri, Mar 10, 2017
D5
Tue, Mar 07, 2017 - Wed, Mar 08, 2017
D8
Fri, Mar 10, 2017 - Sat, Mar 11, 2017
D6
Wed, Mar 08, 2017 - Thu, Mar 09, 2017
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 030913
SPC AC 030913
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0313 AM CST Fri Mar 03 2017
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Monday/day 4 Minnesota to the lower Missouri Valley...
Model forecasts remain fairly consistent with the eastward
progression of a midlevel trough from the Gulf of Alaska now to the
central/northern Plains by Monday/day 4 and the Great Lakes by
Tuesday/day 5. An associated surface cyclone is expected to deepen
and move northeastward from the northern Plains to western Ontario,
while a trailing cold front progresses southeastward across the
Plains. Meanwhile, some increase in low-level moisture is expected
as a modifying Gulf air mass spreads northward ahead of the cold
front, which will contribute to destabilization and some
strong/severe storm risk.
A band of thunderstorms appears probable along the front Monday
evening/night, in an environment of strong vertical shear which
should favor some storm organization. However, buoyancy is expected
to remain rather marginal in a narrow corridor ahead of the front,
and the primary convective mode should be largely linear. Given the
relative predictability of the pattern, at least low severe
probabilities appear likely in upcoming outlooks. However, the
potential window of opportunity and magnitude of the risk both
appear limited enough to preclude a 15% area at this time.
...Tuesday/day 5 lower Mississippi Valley vicinity...
The cold front will continue southeastward into the lower MS Valley
area Tuesday, with convection expected in a moistening environment
along/ahead of the front. The midlevel trough is expected to pass
north of this area and the stronger wind profiles will be displaced
northeast of the unstable warm sector, which will tend to limit the
severe storm risk somewhat.
..Thompson.. 03/03/2017
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
weather.gov 
@NWSSPC
