Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Mar 2, 2017
Updated: Thu Mar 2 08:00:05 UTC 2017
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Sun, Mar 05, 2017 - Mon, Mar 06, 2017
D7
Wed, Mar 08, 2017 - Thu, Mar 09, 2017
D5
Mon, Mar 06, 2017 - Tue, Mar 07, 2017
D8
Thu, Mar 09, 2017 - Fri, Mar 10, 2017
D6
Tue, Mar 07, 2017 - Wed, Mar 08, 2017
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 020758
SPC AC 020758
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 AM CST Thu Mar 02 2017
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Model consensus is that a progressive upper pattern will persist
through the day 4-8 period. However, as early as day 5 (Monday)
increasing ensemble spreads arise regarding the evolution of an
upper trough forecast to move through the Central Plains into the
middle to upper MS Valley. Moisture return preceding this feature
will also be somewhat limited. Although some model solutions
indicate a threat for severe storms might evolve on day 5 (Monday)
anywhere from the Southern Plains to middle MS Valley, confidence is
not sufficient at this time to introduce a 15% probability area.
..Dial.. 03/02/2017
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