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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook Issued on May 5, 2010
Updated: Wed May 5 08:29:08 UTC 2010
| D4 | Sat, May 08, 2010 - Sun, May 09, 2010 |
D7 | Tue, May 11, 2010 - Wed, May 12, 2010 |
| D5 | Sun, May 09, 2010 - Mon, May 10, 2010 |
D8 | Wed, May 12, 2010 - Thu, May 13, 2010 |
| D6 | Mon, May 10, 2010 - Tue, May 11, 2010 |
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) |
Note: A severe weather
area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability
for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be
possible based on some model scenarios.
However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt
due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions,
2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or
3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of
organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire
period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe
storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 050828
SPC AC 050828
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0328 AM CDT WED MAY 05 2010
VALID 081200Z - 131200Z
...DISCUSSION...
THE 05/00Z ECMWF REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH AT LEAST THE PREVIOUS TWO
RUNS IN SUGGESTING THAT A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
FROM THE ERN PACIFIC INTO THE LOWER CO VALLEY ON DAY 5 /SUN MAY
9TH/...BEFORE EJECTING NEWD THROUGH THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION INTO THE
CNTRL PLAINS ON DAY 6 /MON MAY 10TH/. WHILE THE LATEST GFS HAS
TRENDED AWAY FROM THIS SCENARIO...PREVIOUS RUNS ARE MUCH MORE
SIMILAR...AS ARE A NUMBER OF 05/00Z MEDIUM-RANGE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
AN ASSOCIATED LEE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN CONSIDERABLY OVER
ERN CO...ALLOWING FOR THE NWD RETURN OF AN AIR MASS THAT SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY MOIST GIVEN THE UNDISTURBED STATE OF THE WRN GULF OF
MEXICO. ASSUMING A SETUP SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE CURRENT ECMWF...ALL
THE INGREDIENTS SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR A REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT ON DAY 6 ALONG THE DRY LINE FROM WRN KANSAS SWWD TO NWRN TX.
THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THAT ANOTHER...POTENTIALLY LARGER-SCALE
TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE WRN STATES.
HOWEVER...DETAILS IN ITS EVOLUTION ARE UNCLEAR. THEREFORE...NO
ADDITIONAL AREAS WILL BE INCLUDED IN THIS FORECAST.
..MEAD.. 05/05/2010
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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