SPC AC 190551

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1251 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

   Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
   CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA...NORTHERN KANSAS...SOUTHWEST IOWA AND
   NORTHWEST MISSOURI...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central Plains
   Monday evening into the overnight hours. Additional more isolated
   strong to severe storms are possible from the Middle Mississippi
   Valley to Lower Michigan through Monday afternoon.

   ...Synopsis...

   A somewhat complex pattern is expected across the Plains to the
   upper Great Lakes on Monday. During the morning, an upper shortwave
   trough is forecast over the IA vicinity. Convection will likely be
   ongoing across parts of the upper MS Valley in association with this
   feature as it lifts northeast across WI. Further south, some
   guidance is hinting at a possible MCV or outflow over central MO
   related to the convective remnants of an intense MCS forecast in the
   Day 1/Sun period over KS. Across the central Plains, an area of
   broad, enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow will persist over
   NE/KS, though large-scale ascent will remain weak through peak
   heating. Capping will likely suppress convection during the
   afternoon, and airmass recovery from convection in the Day 1 period
   will occur through the daytime hours. A potent lead upper shortwave
   trough, emanating from the larger-scale western U.S. upper trough,
   will eject into the central High Plains overnight. 

   At the surface, a broad warm sector with dewpoints in the 60s to
   near 70 F will extend east/northeast from the central/southern
   Plains to the Mid/Upper MS Valley vicinity. A warm front will lift
   north through the day into northern WI/Lower MI. A dryline will
   extend south/southwest from northwest OK to southwest TX. Overnight,
   surface cyclogenesis will ensue across KS/NE as the upper shortwave
   trough approaches the region. A cold front will sharpen and begin to
   shift east across central NE/KS late in the period.

   ...Central Plains to Lower MO Valley...

   Severe potential will increase by early Monday evening as the upper
   shortwave trough moves into the central Rockies and large-scale
   ascent increases. Initial storm development over northeast CO into
   southwest NE/northwest KS will pose a risk for damaging gusts and
   hail. As a surface low develops east across KS/NE convection will
   increase in coverage, particularly over NE. Given timing of
   convection (mainly during the nighttime hours) and potential for
   linear development as a cold front sharpens and shifts east
   overnight, damaging gusts and hail will be the main hazards as
   storms approach the MO River by Tuesday morning. The southward
   extent of severe potential into KS is a bit uncertain. Strong
   capping will likely persist over the southern half of the state. 

   ...Eastern IA into Lower MI...

   Convection will likely be ongoing Monday morning. Severe potential
   is uncertain during the morning, but any organized storms could pose
   a risk of marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts. Guidance
   suggests severe potential may increase with eastward extent, and
   into the afternoon, from northeast IL into Lower MI as stronger
   destabilization will occur ahead of morning activity. Effective
   shear magnitudes are forecast to be around 25-30 kt. Meanwhile,
   steepening low-level lapse rates, with a mixed boundary layer to
   near 850 mb is noted in forecast soundings. Marginal supercells
   capable of hail and strong gusts will be possible. If confidence
   increases, portions of this area may need higher probabilities in
   subsequent outlooks.

   ...Central MO vicinity...

   A somewhat conditional risk is possible across parts of the central
   MO vicinity. It is possible that an MCV migrating across the area or
   any remnant outflow related to Day 1/Mon activity could focus
   thunderstorm development during the late morning into afternoon.
   Large-scale ascent will be weak over the area, and deep-layer flow
   modest. However, thermodynamic profiles will support marginal hail
   and strong gusts if storms develop.

   ..Leitman.. 05/19/2024

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