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Tornado Watch 42 Watch Hazard Probabilities
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Note:
The parallelogram is only an approximation to the watch,
the actual watch is defined by the outlines of the counties contained in it.
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Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
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Mod (50%)
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Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
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Mod (30%)
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Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
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Mod (50%)
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Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
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Low (20%)
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Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
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High (80%)
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Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
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High (80%)
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Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
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High (>95%)
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For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
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