Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 182
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
215 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 215 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
NUMEROUS LARGE HAIL EVENTS LIKELY WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL
EVENTS TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH A FEW SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 80
MPH POSSIBLE
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF
BARTLESVILLE OKLAHOMA TO 25 MILES SOUTH OF ARDMORE OKLAHOMA. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 179...WW 180...WW 181...
DISCUSSION...THE INITIATION OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS APPEARS LIKELY
ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BEFORE ADVECTING AWAY FROM THE DRYLINE ON 40-50 KT DEEP
LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY MEAN FLOW. AS ACTIVITY PROGRESSES THROUGH A
MOIST UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SIZABLE CAPE...THE RISK FOR VERY
LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. BY EARLY EVENING...A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
WILL CONTINUE TO ENLARGE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...MAINTAINING THE RISK
FOR TORNADOES ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA. A COUPLE OF LONG-LIVED/LONG
TRACK SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH A RISK FOR A FEW STRONG
TORNADOES.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25040.
...KERR
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW2
WW 182 TORNADO OK 191915Z - 200400Z
AXIS..105 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
15NE BVO/BARTLESVILLE OK/ - 25S ADM/ARDMORE OK/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 90NM E/W /33WSW OSW - 18SSE ADM/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..3 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25040.
LAT...LON 36909393 33909519 33909884 36909773
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 182 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
High (70%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Mod (30%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
High (80%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
@NWSSPC
