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Tornado Watch 244 Probability Tables
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The weather watch probability tables are experimental products
currently under evaluation at the Storm Prediction Center.
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed below in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 5%
to 20%, "Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than
90%. High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
You may provide feedback on this experimental product by writing
an e-mail to spc.feedback@noaa.gov.
The
Product Definition Document is available.
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Note:
The parallelogram is only an approximation to the watch,
the actual watch is defined by the outlines of the counties contained in it.
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Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
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Mod (50%)
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Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
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Low (20%)
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Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
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Mod (60%)
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Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
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Mod (30%)
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Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
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High (>95%)
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Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
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High (70%)
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Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
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High (>95%)
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