SEL9
   
   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 529
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1220 PM EDT THU JUL 1 2004
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
   
          MUCH OF NEW YORK STATE
          NORTHERN HALF OF VERMONT
          LAKE ONTARIO
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1220 PM UNTIL
   600 PM EDT.
   
   HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
   MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
   
   THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 85 STATUTE MILES
   EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
   PLATTSBURG NEW YORK TO 35 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROCHESTER NEW YORK.
   
   REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
   PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
   WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
   WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
   TORNADOES.
   
   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA INDICATES SQUALL LINE ACROSS
   SERN ONTARIO MOVING EWD AT 35-40 KT.  AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE LINE HAS
   BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH CAPE VALUES REACHING 2000-2500
   J/KG...WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 35 KT. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS
   SHOW THAT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE NEAR 7.0C/KM WITH LOW/MID
   LEVEL WINDS 35-45 KT.  THUS...MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
   DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY SOME LARGE HAIL.
   
   AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
   TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
   KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
   MOTION VECTOR 26035.
   
   
   ...MCCARTHY