SEL1
   
   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 81
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1145 AM EDT SUN APR 18 2004
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
   
          WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK
          LAKE ONTARIO
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 1145 AM UNTIL 500
   PM EDT.
   
   HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
   MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
   
   THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 45 STATUTE MILES
   NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
   ROCHESTER NEW YORK TO 30 MILES SOUTHEAST OF UTICA NEW YORK.
   
   REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
   PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
   WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
   WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
   TORNADOES.
   
   DISCUSSION...SMALL SCALE MCS WITH LEADING BOW COMPLEX CONTINUES TO
   MOVE EAST AT 45KT. MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION ALONG
   SOUTH OF WARM FRONT ACROSS NY SRN TIER SHOULD SUSTAIN ASCENT AND
   INFLOW INTO THE COMPLEX AS IT TRACKS OVER THE REGION NEXT COUPLE OF
   HOURS. PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY STRONG DEEP
   LAYER WLY SHEAR SHOULD PROMOTE HAIL/WIND HAZARD.
   
   AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
   TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
   KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM
   MOTION VECTOR 28045.
   
   
   ...CARBIN/HART