DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0435 PM CDT SUN MAY 15 2022 VALID TIME 152000Z - 161200Z PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1 ... TORNADO ... 0.02 33579379 33679546 34039643 34649684 35449691 35989690 36269664 36249640 36209551 36009487 35599428 35479404 35039371 34839327 34739287 34699244 34839162 35299115 35789069 36799013 37428976 38248933 38538902 39138795 39288702 39178632 39068585 38878543 38228528 36958659 35388925 34429020 34069116 33919266 33579379 0.02 46081558 45341581 44731722 44381935 44951977 45991872 46791717 46891649 46691584 46081558 0.05 34559529 34689603 35199648 35539654 35819621 36029547 35889490 35399431 35149415 34509384 34349408 34489472 34559529 && ... HAIL ... 0.05 43952088 44662106 46031967 47681688 47821500 47271419 46411393 45831388 45021414 43961498 43301785 43952088 0.05 25398014 25218054 25458090 26628054 27418084 27998178 28788208 29488194 30958171 31018147 30898136 29648126 28778078 26687995 25398014 0.05 42808058 41678120 40488118 39948153 38278315 37368478 35888653 33838841 32719108 32399320 32359498 32749786 34389883 35499848 36569810 36929774 37079696 36869608 36319423 36159366 35989340 35189258 35109209 35409149 36069078 36579036 37439002 38528940 38898888 39628788 40068747 41168644 42298342 43288209 0.05 37618021 39987845 42177711 42987622 43087544 42807499 42507482 39947553 37217811 37157940 37618021 0.15 34999817 36169772 36449739 36529683 36509577 36129434 35559331 34999250 35049191 35419123 36319037 36999003 37868954 38468920 39208789 39968730 40088672 39688642 35128910 34199054 33729225 33589502 33809652 34199762 34999817 0.15 44741720 44371937 44981977 45981873 46791717 46931607 46681517 45981500 45381573 44741720 0.30 35989565 35799533 35469475 35279408 34709333 34369340 34219381 34269452 34439558 34739655 35749663 36029613 36029591 35989565 SIGN 36079719 36179641 36019549 35509416 35109350 34719322 34459321 34099374 34069420 34249641 34759728 36079719 && ... WIND ... 0.05 43982061 44712081 46011969 47681688 47901420 47291248 46691206 46021247 45391298 44111431 43311784 43982061 0.05 25218050 25478090 26098071 26638055 27388082 28048182 28818207 29508191 30968171 31008147 30918135 29658123 28768079 26667994 25438017 25218050 0.05 37177953 37608020 40167862 40927809 41517751 42237706 42987622 43087552 42827498 42537484 39947551 37227813 37177953 0.05 42828050 41668126 40618115 39638164 38388303 37398439 35808584 32988848 32229027 31649257 31479492 31549683 32229820 32829887 33639915 35559849 36769805 37149751 37189683 36799570 36499446 36159361 35579297 35369276 35199228 35279190 35609133 36419055 38118978 38508960 38978923 39418831 40148756 41178639 41408566 42318336 43588160 0.15 40428619 40388559 39998532 38958544 37968591 36328704 33948863 32989153 33069600 33759740 34959796 35919763 36649743 36809738 37079693 36949660 36879613 36659549 36329433 35919373 35069246 35129197 35469130 36349039 37239011 37968963 38788932 39298795 39818759 40428619 0.15 44731718 44401938 44971975 46021869 46791714 46941608 46691517 45991500 45371577 44731718 0.30 36079652 36099622 36089583 35709526 35379451 35269410 35029372 34689333 34329339 33759425 33669519 33939598 34629651 35869667 36079652 SIGN 35799670 36109647 36109587 35699527 35409462 35279413 35029372 34719333 34369338 34209360 33759428 33599553 34009663 34709698 35799670 && CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1 ... CATEGORICAL ... ENH 35909667 36149646 36189619 36139524 35979486 35709444 35459404 35079374 35019372 34719331 34329339 33759425 33669519 33939598 34629651 35909667 SLGT 46691517 45991500 45991500 45981500 45381573 45151628 44731718 44651776 44371937 44981977 45981873 45991872 46021869 46361801 46791717 46841677 46941608 46691517 SLGT 39998532 38958544 37968591 36328704 33948863 32989153 33069600 33759740 34199760 34199762 34989818 36699752 36839738 37079697 36969663 36889619 36609517 36379440 35679345 35059249 35119195 35439133 36359044 37189012 37938968 38718936 39008861 39318791 39798769 40438617 40388559 39998532 MRGL 47901420 47291248 46691206 46021247 45391298 44111431 43971497 43961498 43301785 43952088 44662106 46031967 46921821 47681688 47901420 MRGL 28988089 28778078 26687995 26677995 26667994 26497998 25398014 25288040 25218050 25228053 25218054 25458090 25478089 25478090 26098071 26638055 26758059 27398084 27668125 27998178 28018178 28048182 28538198 28788208 29468192 29468192 29498192 30958171 30998147 30908138 29658123 28988089 MRGL 42288085 42158094 41678120 41008119 40618115 40548118 40488118 40238134 39638164 38388303 38338310 38278315 38218326 37398439 35808584 32988848 32229027 31649257 31479492 31549683 32239820 32829887 33629915 35349853 35489849 36769805 37139755 37179680 36789572 36519452 36149358 35899325 35439285 35239236 35249194 35549141 36349068 37619001 38508966 38938932 39388832 40048766 41138645 42298342 43078238 MRGL 42247704 42977621 43077548 42827501 42537484 39947551 38167727 37217811 37157940 37177944 37177953 37608020 40167862 40927809 41527752 42247704 TSTM 49471020 48170947 47290936 45760990 44141137 42401264 41121392 40251483 38681648 38021732 37851857 38211917 38641952 39451940 39961895 40371811 40981724 41611698 42371748 42621819 42641862 42482015 42422035 42462060 42632083 42882089 43472115 44172157 45022160 45902067 46441993 48011886 49491846 99999999 29259344 29619380 30899715 32619919 33489952 34369914 36399856 37289825 37879761 38159668 38169603 37859465 37119353 36589241 36779153 37159075 37739021 38238994 38638991 39089002 39429070 39889176 40269215 40549215 40879176 41609008 41668978 42008864 42248622 43588442 45718190 TSTM 36117469 35557617 34677763 33807882 33127942 32527961 32187958 TSTM 47746920 45856941 44076949 43327025 42327071 41247192 40637234 40237229 && THERE IS A ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE CQB 30 W TUL 15 W TUL 35 NNE MKO 35 NE MKO 25 N FSM 20 ENE FSM 40 WSW RUE 40 WSW RUE 20 NW HOT 20 WSW HOT 20 SSE DEQ 15 E PRX 25 E DUA 35 NE ADM 15 NE CQB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE P69 30 ESE P69 30 ESE P69 30 ESE P69 40 NNE MYL 20 NNW MYL 30 ESE BKE 15 SSE BKE 55 NNW BNO 70 SW PDT 20 NNE PDT 20 NNE PDT 20 WSW ALW 20 NE ALW PUW 20 ENE PUW 50 ENE PUW 40 NNE P69. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE MIE 55 NNE SDF 20 SSW SDF 25 WNW BNA 25 NNW CBM 45 NE MLU 50 SW PRX 40 W GYI 35 WSW ADM 35 W ADM 15 SW CHK 25 W PNC 15 WNW PNC 25 NNE PNC 30 ENE PNC 10 NW BVO 25 W GMJ 25 SE GMJ 35 NW RUE 25 NNW LIT 30 NNE LIT 25 SE BVX 30 S POF 30 W CGI 25 WNW MDH 20 WNW SLO 30 NE SLO 25 ESE MTO 30 S DNV 40 E LAF 15 NW MIE 20 SSE MIE. THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S GPI 55 NNW HLN HLN BTM 25 WNW DLN 40 N SUN 45 NW SUN 45 NW SUN 50 N REO 25 SSE RDM 30 N RDM 45 WNW PDT 55 WNW PUW 30 E GEG 30 S GPI. THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE DAB 30 SSE DAB 10 E PBI 10 E PBI 10 E PBI 15 SSE PBI 30 SSE MIA 35 SSW MIA 45 SSW MIA 45 SSW MIA 45 SSW MIA 45 WSW MIA 45 WSW MIA 45 WSW MIA 35 NW MIA 30 W PBI 30 W PBI 30 SW VRB AGR 35 NW AGR 35 NW AGR 40 NW AGR 40 W ORL 30 SSE OCF 25 SE GNV 25 SE GNV 25 ESE GNV 20 SW SSI 10 S SSI 15 SSE SSI 25 SSE SGJ 15 SE DAB. THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW ERI 40 W ERI 35 ENE CLE 15 ENE CAK 25 SE CAK 30 SSE CAK 35 SSE CAK 35 ENE ZZV 20 NNW PKB 25 W HTS 30 W HTS 35 W HTS 40 WSW HTS 25 NW LOZ 45 WSW CSV 45 S CBM 75 N MCB 25 NW ESF 20 NNW LFK 25 ESE ACT SEP 45 W MWL 45 WSW SPS 35 WNW CHK 40 NW CHK 30 NNW END 35 S ICT 35 NNE PNC 15 E BVO 15 ESE GMJ 25 WSW HRO 25 SSW HRO 20 NE RUE 35 NNW LIT 40 SSW BVX 20 SE BVX 20 NE ARG 25 ESE FAM 10 ESE BLV 25 NW SLO MTO 10 SSW DNV 35 SE VPZ DTW 40 NE MTC. THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW ELM 10 SSW SYR 10 SW UCA 30 SE UCA 50 SSE UCA 15 WNW PHL 45 N RIC 35 N AVC 15 SW LYH 15 SW LYH 20 WSW LYH 15 SSE SSU 20 WSW AOO 15 WNW UNV 35 WNW IPT 10 WNW ELM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNW HVR 30 SSE HVR 15 NNE LWT 25 E LVM 40 SSW WEY 25 NW MLD 30 N ENV 55 SW ENV 55 NE TPH 15 WSW TPH 35 NNW BIH 65 SE TVL 30 SE TVL 20 E RNO 20 WSW LOL 30 NE LOL 30 E WMC 45 WSW OWY 25 SE REO 15 W REO 40 W REO 25 NNE LKV 20 N LKV 25 NNW LKV 40 NW LKV 55 NNW LKV 55 S RDM 20 WSW RDM 45 SSW DLS 30 NE DLS 30 ESE YKM 45 SE OMK 85 NNE OMK ...CONT... 60 SE BPT 25 SSE BPT 25 SE TPL 30 ENE ABI 70 WSW SPS 20 SSE LTS 25 SSE AVK 20 E P28 20 NNW ICT 30 WSW EMP 15 SE EMP 45 ENE CNU 10 SW SGF 25 N FLP 20 E UNO 30 NNW POF 10 ESE FAM 20 SSW BLV BLV 10 N ALN 45 SE UIN 30 W UIN 25 ENE IRK 35 NE IRK 35 WNW BRL 25 ENE MLI 40 ENE MLI 25 ESE RFD 15 NE BEH 15 W MBS 90 ENE APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NE HSE 40 NW HSE 10 S OAJ 10 NE CRE 40 ENE CHS 35 SE CHS 55 SSE CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NW CAR 80 NNW BGR 25 SE AUG 25 S PWM 15 ESE BOS 10 SE GON 40 ESE ISP 55 SE ISP.