SPC AC 112001
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0201 PM CST WED FEB 11 2009
VALID 112000Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN KY...SRN OH...WRN
WV...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM
WRN PA TO ERN AL...
CORRECTED FOR NDFD WIND GRAPHIC
...OH/TN VALLEY...
INTENSE UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS THE OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON
AS VERY STRONG H5 SPEED MAX...ON THE ORDER OF 110-120KT...LIFTS
ACROSS TN/ERN KS INTO SRN WV. EXIT REGION OF THIS FEATURE WILL
INDUCE VERY STRONG VERTICAL MOTION ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT...AS EVIDENT BY H5 HEIGHT FALLS ON THE ORDER OF
270-300M/12HR. NEEDLESS TO SAY THIS FOCUSED DYNAMIC SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO FORCE A NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG SURGING COLD
FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ERN TN/KY INTO SRN OH/WV. LATEST RADAR
DATA SUGGESTS WELL DEFINED SQUALL LINE...WITH EMBEDDED SMALL
BOW-TYPE FEATURES...IS MOVING EAST AT ROUGHLY 40-45KT...WITH
INDIVIDUAL CELLS RACING NEWD IN EXCESS OF 50KT. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EVOLVING BENEATH STRONG JET CORE AND IS EXTREMELY SHEARED WITHIN
INCREASING SWLY DEEP LAYER FLOW. THERE IS INCREASING CONCERN THAT
VERY STRONG DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE NOTED WITH MORE ORGANIZED BOW
SHAPED STRUCTURES. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SUBSTANTIAL
SUNSHINE HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE LINE ACROSS SERN OH/ERN KS INTO
WV WHERE SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES ARE APPROACHING 7C/KM. ALTHOUGH
LIGHTNING IS NEARLY ABSENT WITH THIS LOW TOPPED CONVECTION...VERY
STRONG WINDS MAY BE TRANSFERED TO THE SURFACE MORE EASILY AS
BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS. FOR THIS REASON HAVE INCREASED THE
PROBABILITY FOR SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE WITH SQUALL LINE AS IT
SPREADS NEWD.
..DARROW.. 02/11/2009
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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