The SPC is forecasting ...severe weather outbreak expected over the arklatex later this afternoon and tonight.... Please read the latest public statement about this event.
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SPC AC 100608 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1208 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2009 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN OK...NORTH CENTRAL AND NERN TX...NWRN LA...AND MUCH OF AR FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK FROM EAST TX/LA NWD TO LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEYS... ...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK INCLUDING TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF OK...NORTH CENTRAL-NERN TX INTO NWRN LA AND MUCH OF AR... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY WITH AN ACCOMPANYING 95 KT MID LEVEL JET MAX...WILL TRANSLATE EWD REACHING THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY 00Z. THIS TROUGH WILL THEN BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AND DEEPEN TUESDAY NIGHT AS IT TRACKS ENEWD TOWARD ERN KS/ERN OK. MODELS SUGGEST A SMALL CLOSED LOW SHOULD DEVELOP OVER SERN KS/ERN OK BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. A 90+ KT MID LEVEL JET WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS NRN TX AND OK TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE STRONGEST CORE OF MID LEVEL WINDS /110 KT/ EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS NRN TX TO THE ARKLATEX BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. WHILE MODELS TEND TO AGREE WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER TROUGH...THEY DIFFER WITH THE TRACK OF THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW. THE NAM IS THE FARTHEST NORTH TAKING THE LOW ACROSS KS INTO CENTRAL MO THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE THE GFS SUGGESTS THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN OK INTO SRN MO BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. A FAIRLY LARGE WARM SECTOR SHOULD DEVELOP TODAY... EXTENDING NWD THROUGH ERN KS AND MUCH OF MO AS SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS TRANSPORT MOISTURE NWD... WITH A WARM FRONT POSSIBLY REACHING NRN MO INTO CENTRAL IL. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL PARTS OF OK/TX BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON WHERE IT WILL MERGE WITH A DRY LINE. THIS FRONT IS PROGGED TO SURGE EWD REACHING ERN MO...ERN AR...AND EXTEND SWWD INTO THE NWRN GULF BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. ...SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY NWD TO NRN MO/MID MS VALLEY... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING NWD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR TODAY BENEATH A PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EMANATING NEWD FROM THE MEXICAN PLATEAU WILL AID IN DESTABILIZATION. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S ARE EXPECTED TO REACH NERN TX/SERN OK AND INTO CENTRAL AR. ALTHOUGH CLOUDINESS WILL TEND TO LIMIT SURFACE HEATING EAST OF THE DRY LINE...A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN OK INTO CENTRAL/ NERN TX. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF ERN TX/SERN OK INTO ADJACENT PARTS OF AR/LA. SOME SURFACE HEATING WITHIN THE MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITHIN A WEAKLY CAPPED AIR MASS. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION BY AFTERNOON SUGGESTS THIS EARLY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DISCRETE... WHILE STRENGTHENING SLY WINDS ACROSS THIS AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN CURVED HODOGRAPHS/TORNADO POTENTIAL. GREATER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE IN CENTRAL OK TO CENTRAL TX BY LATE AFTERNOON /AFTER 21Z/... GENERALLY ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING OF THE SLY LLJ /50+ KT/ FROM E TX/LA TO ERN KS/MO WILL RESULT IN LARGE CURVED HODOGRAPHS AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR STRONG/SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES AS STRONG UPPER FORCING WITH THE TROUGH SPREADS INTO THE SRN PLAINS. IF CONFIDENCE BECOMES GREATER IN THE TRACK OF THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW...PORTIONS OF THE MODERATE RISK AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A HIGH RISK. A SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WIND THREAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRY LINE...AND STRONG WLY LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS SPREAD EWD ACROSS SRN OK/NRN TX REACHING THE ARKLATEX REGION BY 11/09Z AND INTO NRN LA AND CENTRAL AR LATE IN THE PERIOD. AS THE WARM SECTOR SPREADS FARTHER N TOWARD THE LOWER MO VALLEY... TSTM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING THIS EVENING ACROSS OK/AR WILL TRACK NEWD WITH THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATICS FAVORABLE FOR HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES EXTENDING THROUGH ERN KS AND MUCH OF MO. ..PETERS.. 02/10/2009 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z