SPC AC 041705
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1105 AM CST MON FEB 04 2008
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF AR...SERN MO...SRN
IL...SRN IN...CENTRAL AND WRN KY...MIDDLE AND WRN TN...PARTS OF NRN
AND WRN AL...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NRN MS...PARTS OF NRN LA......
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN PORTIONS OF SRN PLAINS
INTO THE LOWER AND MID MS AND TN/OH VALLEYS......
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK LIKELY OVER LARGE PORTION OF SOUTH
CENTRAL U.S. TUESDAY...
THE LARGE TROUGH CURRENTLY WRN U.S. WILL AGGRESSIVELY MOVE FROM
SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY TUE AS VIGOROUS UPSTREAM SYSTEM
ENTERS PAC NW.
AN UNSEASONABLY LARGE WARM SECTOR WILL BE IN PLACE BY EARLY TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NRN TX AND TO THE S OF FRONTAL
ZONE THAT EXTENDS NEWD ACROSS MID MS TO LOWER OH VALLEYS.
WITH 60F DEWPOINTS IN PLACE NWD TO FRONTAL ZONE AS FAR E AS SRN
IN/OH AND MID/UPPER 60 DEWPOINTS GULF STATES FROM ERN TX TO AL...THE
THERMODYNAMICS WILL SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A LARGE
PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. THRU TUESDAY NIGHT.
MID/UPPER LEVEL JET MAX IN EXCESS OF 100KT WILL TRACK FROM SRN
PLAINS TO LOWER OH/WRN TN VALLEYS BY TUE NIGHT. COUPLED WITH THE LOW
LEVEL JET BACKING AND INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON TO 50-60KT
LOWER MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW...VERY
STRONG/VEERING SHEAR PROFILES DEVELOP...SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS
MUCH OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING TUE AM AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE LOW ERN OK/NRN TX INTO WRN AR. SEVERE THREAT WILL SPREAD
NEWD ACROSS MID MS INTO LOWER OH VALLEY BY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY
BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON SURFACED BASED STORMS ARE LIKELY IN THE WARM
SECTOR SPREADING EWD ACROSS LOWER MS/WRN TN VALLEYS.
WITH MLCAPES AOA 1000 J/KG OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE WARM SECTOR
AND SUCH STRONG SHEAR PROFILES...TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY BOTH
WITH THE SEVERE STORMS AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW/NEAR FRONTAL ZONE AND
WITH ANY WARM SECTOR DEVELOPMENT. LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS WILL HAVE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES OVER MUCH OF THE MDT RISK AREA THRU
THE EVENING HOURS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THRU TUE NIGHT
AND EVOLVE MORE INTO A SQUALL LINE WITH ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE
POTENTIAL. HOWEVER TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WELL AFTER DARK
PARTICULARLY IN AREA WHERE HIGHER CAPES ARE AVAILABLE FROM TN SWD.
..HALES.. 02/04/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0800Z
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