Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic

   SPC AC 261609
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1109 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2008
   
   VALID 261630Z - 271200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
   PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KS...THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE...AND NORTHWEST
   OK.......
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF TX...ACROSS THE
   MID MS AND OH VALLEYS...NY/PA......
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN WY SWD
   INTO CENTRAL CO.....
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   WRN UPPER LOW FINALLY OPENING UP AND MOVING NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL
   ROCKIES TODAY AS TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF CA COAST. LARGE SURFACE HIGH
   BUILDING INTO NCENTRAL U.S. WILL PROVIDE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW SWD 
   THRU ERN WY/CO.  COLD FRONT FROM GREAT LAKES WSWWD THRU IA TO ERN CO
   WILL CONTINUE E AND SE EXTENDING FROM LOWER GREAT LAKES WSWWD TO
   CENTRAL KS/SERN CO BY TONIGHT.  THE LARGE RESERVOIR OF VERY UNSTABLE
   AIR CENTRAL U.S. ON SUNDAY HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY EXHAUSTED BY THE
   WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OF THE PAST 24 HOURS. HOWEVER SLY FLOW OF
   UNDISTURBED GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FLOW NWD THRU SRN PLAINS TO S
   OF FRONT AND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS FAR N AS KS.
   
   ...OK/TX/KS...
   OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS RESULTED IN AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ANALYZED AT
   15Z FROM CENTRAL KS SEWD THRU ERN OK. VERY MOIST AIR CONTINUES TO
   FLOW NWD OVER OK INTO SRN KS TO W OF BOUNDARY.  A WELL-DEFINED
   DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT TODAY FROM SOUTHWEST KS INTO THE
   EASTERN TX PANHANDLE...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S WEST OF
   THE DRYLINE AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE EAST.  THIS WILL
   RESULT IN AN AXIS OF VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH MLCAPE VALUES
   OVER 3000 J/KG AND A RATHER WEAK CAP.  PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
   CONVECTION WILL INTENSIFY BY MID AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM
   THE TX PANHANDLE TO THE TRIPLE POINT WITH THE E/W COLD FRONT OVER
   SOUTHWEST KS.  THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
   VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES.  STORMS WILL
   BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AND EVENTUALLY
   COALESCE INTO AN MCS THAT SHOULD TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTH
   CENTRAL KS AND NORTHERN OK.  THIS AREA MAY SEE AN ENHANCED THREAT OF
   MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   ...CENTRAL ROCKIES...
   UPSLOPE FLOW OF COOL/MOIST AIR HAS SPREAD INTO SRN WY AND TO E OF CO
   ROCKIES.  IMPRESSIVE VEERING SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE IN PLACE FROM
   SRN WY SWD ALONG CO FRONT RANGE AS THE WRN TROUGH APPROACHES.  THE
   HIGH PLAINS OF ERN WY/CO EXPECTED TO REMAIN COOL AND MOSTLY CAPPED
   TO STRONG SURFACE BASED CONVECTION.  HOWEVER ACROSS SRN WY AND THEN
   SWD TO W OF THE CO FRONT RANGE...SATELLITE INDICATES THERE WILL BE
   SUFFICIENT HEATING TO SUPPORT SURFACE BASED STORMS. STEEP...COOL
   LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO SBCAPE UPWARDS TO 500 J/KG SCENTRAL WY.
   WITH 50-60 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG WITH THE LOW LEVEL VEERING WITH
   THE ELY UPSLOPE FLOW...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING
   STORMS. GIVEN THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED
   TO HAIL AND LOCAL STRONG WINDS PARTICULARLY WITH ANY STORM THAT IS
   ABLE TO ROTATE.  AN ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE SRN WY.
   
   ..MID MS AND OH VALLEYS...
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD FROM THE MID MS VALLEY
   THIS MORNING.  THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD
   THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON INTO THE OH VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES
   REGION.  WHILE SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND INSTABILITY ARE CURRENTLY LOWER
   IN THIS AREA...12Z ILN SOUNDING SUGGESTS THAT MOISTURE ABOVE THE
   SURFACE WILL MIX DOWN AS DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS...HELPING TO
   DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS.  STORMS WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY BY MID
   AFTERNOON WITH A RISK OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS FAR EAST AS
   NY/PA.
   
   OVERALL EXPECT THE SEVERE THREAT TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED
   THIS AREA GIVEN THERE IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 35KT OF DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES RANGE FROM 6-7C/KM.
   
   ..HALES/HURLBUT.. 05/26/2008
   
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