The SPC is forecasting ...severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the southern plains this afternoon and tonight.... Please read the latest public statement about this event.
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SPC AC 072014
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0314 PM CDT WED MAY 07 2008
VALID 072000Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF NERN TX...SERN OK
INTO NWRN LA...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
CORRECTED FOR OUTLOOK GRAPHIC
...SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
THIS AFTERNOON A DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW IN SWRN OK SWD
THROUGH NWRN AND S CNTRL TX. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SWWD
THROUGH NWRN AND WRN TX. ANOTHER BOUNDARY EXTENDS NEWD FROM THE LOW
THROUGH NERN OK NRN MO. INSTABILITY IN MOST OF THE WARM SECTOR HAS
BEEN LIMITED TODAY BY WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND CONVECTION ALONG WARM
CONVEYOR BELT NOW LOCATED OVER ERN TX. HOWEVER...WEST OF THIS BAND
AND EAST OF DRYLINE...THE ATMOSPHERE IS DESTABILIZING IN A NARROW
CORRIDOR FROM S CNTRL THROUGH N CNTRL AND NWRN TX WITH MLCAPE FROM
1000 TO 1500 J/KG. STORMS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED OVER SRN OK WITHIN
ZONE OF DPVA AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE JUST EAST OF SURFACE LOW.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES OTHER CUMULUS DEVELOPING FARTHER SWD
OVER NWRN-S CNTRL TX WITHIN ZONE OF MIXING NEAR DRYLINE. VERTICAL
WIND PROFILES ALONG PRIMARY INSTABILITY AXIS EXHIBIT STRONG 50+ KT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR...BUT WITH BACKING MID LEVEL WINDS LIKELY INDICATIVE
OF COLD ADVECTION ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH. STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRYLINE MAY DEVELOP BOTH SUPERCELL AND LINEAR
STRUCTURES WITH A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES.
THE BEST KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FOR A MORE ROBUST TORNADO THREAT IS
CURRENTLY OVER ERN TX ALONG LOW LEVEL JET AXIS AND WILL SHIFT EAST
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT. LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
CURRENTLY EXIST IN THIS REGION. CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG WARM
CONVEYOR BELT OVER ERN TX AND SERN OK IS NOT PARTICULARLY ROBUST DUE
PRIMARILY TO THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED DURING THE LAST
HOUR. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR CONVECTION DEVELOPING FARTHER WEST IN
AXIS OF STRONGER INSTABILITY ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE DRYLINE TO
MOVE EAST WHERE THE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT IS MORE SUPPORTIVE OF LOW
LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AND POSSIBLY A FEW TORNADOES. WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE RISK FOR THIS SCENARIO...THOUGH THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN
THIS REGION WILL REMAIN A LIMITING FACTOR.
FARTHER WEST NEAR UPPER LOW CENTER...LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO
WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT ACROSS NWRN TX INTO WRN OK WHERE
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT EXIST.
..DIAL.. 05/07/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z