The SPC is forecasting ...more severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the southeast us today.... Please read the latest public statement about this event.
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SPC AC 150559 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1259 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2008 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF NRN AND CNTRL GA INTO A PART OF SC... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY INTO A PORTION OF THE SERN STATES... ...SYNOPSIS... THE LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH STRONG MID LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AND SERN STATES...REACHING THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY EVENING. IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE...SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ENEWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD INTO THE TN VALLEY AND CAROLINAS DURING THE DAY WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT ADVANCING SEWD THROUGH THE SERN U.S.. ...SERN STATES... ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT ON NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET AND JUST AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH...MOSTLY FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY. THESE STORMS MAY POSE A THREAT FOR HAIL AS THEY LIFT NEWD ALLOWING THE WARM SECTOR TO DESTABILIZE IN THEIR WAKE. PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WITH LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS WILL ADVECT THROUGH WARM SECTOR OVER THE SERN STATES ALONG SWLY LOW LEVEL JET. PLUME OF STEEP 7 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SPREAD OVER THE MOISTENING WARM SECTOR...CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. THE CAP WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS WITHIN ZONE OF INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO REDEVELOP WITHIN LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT REGIME IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR FROM SRN PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY INTO NRN AL...NRN GA AND EWD INTO SC. VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WITH 80+ KT WLY MID LEVEL JET COUPLED WITH A SWLY 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES WILL LIKELY EXCEED 250 M2/S2 ALONG WITH 70+ KT BULK SHEAR. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES CAPABLE OF A FEW TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH SC AND SRN PORTIONS OF NC DURING THE EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. ..DIAL/GRAMS.. 03/15/2008 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z