The SPC is forecasting ...severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the central plains this afternoon and tonight.... Please read the latest public statement about this event.
| Categorical Graphic |
|---|
|
| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic |
 |
 |
| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic |
 |
 |
| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic |
 |
 |
SPC AC 042000 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0300 PM CDT FRI MAY 04 2007 VALID 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NWRN OK...WRN AND CENTRAL KS INTO SWRN NEB... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM SD INTO PARTS OF TX... ...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO WRN OK/WRN N TX... AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS...AS WIDESPREAD 60S DEWPOINTS WITHIN WARM SECTOR COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE COMBINING TO YIELD MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY. THOUGH MEAN-LAYER CAPE OVER 3000 J/KG IS INDICATED FROM S CENTRAL KS SWD INTO TX AHEAD OF DRYLINE...AFTERNOON RAOBS INDICATE A WEAKENING CAP REMAINING IN PLACE. THE CAP SHOULD TEND TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT S OF THE KS/OK BORDER...WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MORE ISOLATED. FURTHER N HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS INCREASING ACROSS NEB N OF WARM FRONT ATTM...AND STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NEB OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. IN ADDITION...SUBTLE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE CROSSING THE SRN ROCKIES AND APPROACHING THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ATTM PER LATEST WV LOOP. RESULTING LARGE-SCALE UVV AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE INVOF WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER WRN KS AND ASSOCIATED DRYLINE AND WARM FRONT SUGGEST THAT CAP SHOULD WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW STORMS TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE MODERATE RISK AREA. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...EXPECT STORMS TO QUICKLY DEVELOP ROTATION. WHILE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT LARGE HAIL WILL BE A PRIMARY CONCERN...LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED. GREATEST TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL KS NNWWD TOWARD SWRN NEB...WHERE BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS SUPPORTING THE GREATEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. GREATEST SEVERE THREAT SHOULD OCCUR THIS EVENING...AS LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD INCREASES. STORMS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD...SPREADING THE SEVERE THREAT SLOWLY NEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH TIME INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALONG WITH CONTINUED THREAT FOR HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS MAY INCREASE AS MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAY LEAD TO ONE OR MORE ORGANIZED MCS. ..GOSS.. 05/04/2007 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z