Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic

   SPC AC 072013
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 2
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0313 PM CDT FRI APR 07 2006
   
   VALID 072000Z - 081200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF MS...AL AND
   TN...
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   MS...AL...TN...GA...LA...KY...IL...IND...OH...VA AND NC...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MS
   VALLEY...GULF COAST...OH VALLEY AND CNTRL APPALACHIANS...
   
   ...TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS/LOWER MS VALLEY...
   MAJOR TORNADO OUTBREAK IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
   VALLEY AND SRN OH VALLEY. AS THE AFTERNOON CONTINUES...IN ADDITION
   TO THE DAMAGING STORMS ACROSS TN AND KY...NUMEROUS TORNADIC STORMS
   WITH A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES WILL INITIATE NEAR
   THE MS RIVER AND TRACK ENEWD ACROSS THE HIGH RISK AREA.
   
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A POTENT UPPER-LOW OVER THE
   CNTRL PLAINS WITH AN ASSOCIATED 90 KT MID-LEVEL JET PUNCHING ENEWD
   ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY REGION. THE JET IS ENHANCING LIFT AND
   VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS KY AND TN WHERE NUMEROUS SUPERCELL STORMS ARE
   ONGOING IN THE NOSE OF THE APPROACHING JET. SFC AND OBJECTIVE
   ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOW A LARGE VOLATILE WARM SECTOR WITH SFC
   DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F AND MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY OVER A
   LARGE AREA OF THE MISSISSIPPI...OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. IN
   ADDITION TO THE LARGE WARM SECTOR AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
   PROFILES...WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILERS SHOW IDEAL LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
   CONDITIONS FOR TORNADOES OVER MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR. IN ADDITION
   TO TORNADOES....VERY LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY WITH
   THE INTENSE SUPERCELLS. THE FIRST ROUND OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
   STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ENEWD INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS
   WITH A SECOND ROUND OF VERY INTENSE STORMS JUST ABOUT TO BEGIN
   FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.
   
   1930Z VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANDING CUMULUS FIELD
   OVER NRN LA...SERN AR AND NW MS. AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES
   AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH...RAPID SUPERCELL INITIATION SHOULD
   TAKE PLACE JUST AHEAD OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL JET PUNCHING INTO THE
   AREA. AS THE JET PUNCHES EWD ACROSS NRN MS AND NRN AL...SHEAR
   PROFILES WILL BECOME VERY FAVORABLE FOR LONG-LIVED STRONG TORNADIC
   SUPERCELLS. AN OUTBREAK OF STRONG TORNADOES SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS NRN
   AND CNTRL MS...NRN AL AND SCNTRL TN. AS THE STORMS TRACK
   ENEWD...SEVERAL LONG-LIVED VIOLENT TORNADOES NOW APPEAR INCREASINGLY
   LIKELY AS A 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET FEEDS NWD INTO THE TORNADIC STORMS
   ACROSS NRN MS...NRN AL AND SCNTRL TN. THE THREAT OF STRONG TO
   VIOLENT TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE AS INTENSE TORNADIC SUPERCELLS MOVE
   ENEWD THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN TN...NRN AL AND POSSIBLE AS FAR EAST
   AS NWRN GA.
   
   BY THIS EVENING...THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WILL EXIST ACROSS A
   LARGE AREA FROM THE OH VALLEY EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND
   LOWER MS VALLEY. A FEW AREAS OF ENHANCED TORNADO POTENTIAL OUTSIDE
   THE HIGH RISK AREA FOR STRONG TORNADOES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
   EXIST OVER SRN IL AND SRN IND WHERE INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED.
   ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES WILL ALSO EXIST AS
   SUPERCELLS INITIATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING OVER
   LA AND CNTRL MS. THE TORNADO/SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
   MUCH OF THE EVENING AS STORMS TRACK EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES
   AND SRN/CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS. ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
   MAY DECREASE SOME AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE TO DECREASING INSTABILITY...ANY
   SUPERCELLS THAT CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR
   LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE.
   
   ...ERN APPALACHIAN FOOTHILLS/ERN SEABOARD.
   FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND WRN
   CAROLINAS...DESTABILIZATION WILL CONTINUE AND THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
   BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
   THROUGH THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY EXIST
   ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD TONIGHT...THE MAIN THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
   LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 04/07/2006
   
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