SPC AC 220738
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0238 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2005
   
   VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH HRCN RITA
   ACROSS PARTS OF ERN TX....
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SD AND NEB INTO
   IA....
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   STRONG VORTEX WILL BE MOVING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL PARTS OF CANADA
   DRAGGING A TROUGH FROM THE NRN ROCKIES THRU THE NRN PLAINS.  MODELS
   IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT SRN PIECE OF THIS TROUGH WILL DETACH JUST
   OFF THE CA COAST BECOMING A MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW.  ONE
   EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
   AS ANOTHER WILL MOVE INTO PARTS OF THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
   
   MEANWHILE...REMNANTS OF RITA ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NWD THRU ERN TX. 
   REFER TO THE LATEST STATEMENTS AND ADVISORIES FROM THE NHC/TPC.
   
   ...ERN TX...
   
   LATEST 5-DAY PLOT OF HURRICANE RITA TAKES IT INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER
   TX COAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD NWWD JUST SW OF HOU TO JUST
   N OF CLL BEFORE WEAKENING IT TO A DEPRESSION JUST E OF DAL BY
   25/12Z.  STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO THE STRENGTH OF THE
   STORM AT THIS PERIOD...BUT GIVEN CURRENT EXPECTATIONS FAVORABLE
   FORWARD RIGHT QUADRANT WILL MOVE THRU ERN PARTS OF TX WHERE SHEAR
   WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES.
   
   ...CENTRAL PLAINS...
   
   MODELS MOVE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
   ERN NEB EXTENDING INTO SWRN KS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  MODELS
   SHOW AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH
   SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S AND MUCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG BY
   SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50 KT IS EXPECTED FROM
   CENTRAL KS INTO SWRN MN ADVECTING TROPICAL LIKE MOISTURE OVER TX NWD
   INTO THE SYSTEM.  THIS WILL COMBINE WITH STRENGTHENING MID/UPR LEVEL
   JET OF AROUND 70 KT AND 90 KT RESPECTIVELY TO ENHANCE VERTICAL SHEAR
   IN FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION ENHANCING UVVS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 
   WOULD ANTICIPATE LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
   PARTS OF CENTRAL SD SWWD INTO NEB ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
   POSSIBLY BECOMING AN MCS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY ACROSS NEB
   INTO IA AS SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.  MAIN
   THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   ..MCCARTHY.. 09/22/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1100Z