SPC AC 230600
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0100 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005
   
   VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW
   GLS 15 ESE CLL 45 NNE CLL 35 SW TYR 20 ENE GGG 40 S ELD 35 E MLU 30
   S JAN 30 S LUL 70 S MOB.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW
   CNK 45 E MCK 30 NNE MCK 20 ESE LBF 20 NW BBW 15 NW BUB SPW 25 SSW
   RST 40 S LSE 30 NNE DBQ 25 S DBQ 35 SSE CID 25 WSW OTM 35 NW CNK.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW LRD 50 ENE DRT
   45 WSW BWD SPS 45 NE OKC 20 SSW PNC 25 NNE END 35 E GAG 20 WNW AMA
   30 ENE 4CR 20 WSW ONM 50 SW GNT 50 WSW FMN 50 SE CNY 45 NNW GJT 25 S
   RWL 35 WNW CDR 45 NE ATY 45 WSW IWD 15 WNW MQT 55 W ANJ 25 ESE ANJ.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W BUF MGW 15 SE
   EKN 20 ENE LYH 50 WSW RIC 30 SE RIC 35 SE WAL.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TX...LA
   AND SWRN MS...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NEB AND IA...
   
   ...EAST TX/LA/SRN MS...
   THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER CURRENTLY FORECASTS HURRICANE KATRINA
   TO MOVE INLAND SATURDAY MORNING ALONG THE UPPER-TX COAST BETWEEN
   GALVESTON AND BEAUMONT TX. THE CENTER IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY
   NWD ACROSS EAST TX DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD. HEAVY RAINBANDS WILL
   LIKELY MOVE WNWWD ACROSS EAST TX AND WRN LA WITH THE OUTER RAINBANDS
   LOCATED ACROSS ERN LA...SRN MS AND ALONG THE MIDDLE TX COAST. THE
   BEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY COMBINATION WILL LIKELY BE EAST
   OF THE HURRICANE CENTER IN FAR EAST TX AND WRN LA. FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM AND GFS CONFIRM THIS IDEA SHOWING MUCAPE
   VALUES IN THIS REGION ABOVE 2500 J/KG AND 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE
   40 TO 50 KT RANGE FOR MOST OF THE DAY 2 PERIOD. THIS ENVIRONMENT
   WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES WITH MINI-SUPERCELLS THAT ARE
   EMBEDDED IN THE RAINBANDS. ALTHOUGH THE MAGNITUDE OF THE THREAT
   REMAINS UNCERTAIN ATTM...THE TORNADO THREAT COULD REMAIN IN PLACE
   FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME DUE TO THE RELATIVELY SLOW MOVEMENT
   OF THE HURRICANE. THE GREATEST THREAT SHOULD BE WITH ROTATING STORMS
   ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE OUTER RAINBANDS NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
   THE TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY ENCOMPASS A LARGE AREA NORTHEAST OF
   THE CENTER WITH THE THREAT CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
   
   ...NEB/IA...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
   SLIDE EWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES TONIGHT AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS
   SATURDAY. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL SUPPORT
   SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION
   SATURDAY. STORMS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ALONG
   A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO EXTEND SWWD FROM WRN MN INTO CNTRL NEB. AS
   THE FRONT MOVES SEWD DURING THE DAY...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
   GRADUALLY INCREASE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS SHOW SBCAPE VALUES ABOVE 2500 J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES
   IN THE 50 TO 55 KT RANGE. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
   WIND DAMAGE. HOWEVER...IF THE STORMS LINE OUT IN THE AFTERNOON AND
   EARLY EVENING...A MULTICELL SEVERE THREAT MAY BECOME THE DOMINANT
   MODE FOR SEVERE WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE IN THE LINE. THE
   WIND DAMAGE THREAT WOULD BE ENHANCED WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND
   ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF BOWING SEGMENTS. ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
   BE CONCENTRATED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WHEN
   INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE REGION.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 09/23/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z