SPC AC 240600
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0100 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005
   
   VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW
   GLS 45 SW LFK 15 ENE TYR 20 WNW TXK 35 SSE HOT 30 NW GLH 40 SSE GWO
   20 NE LUL 30 SSE MOB.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE
   LNK 20 SSE HSI 15 E MCK 25 WSW IML 15 E SNY 20 ENE AIA 35 NW VTN 10
   N 9V9 BKX 20 ESE RWF 35 WNW RST 40 SSE RST 25 NE ALO 40 S ALO 25 S
   DSM 35 ESE LNK.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE PSX 30 ESE ACT
   30 ENE MLC 10 NE SGF 25 ENE SZL 30 NE MKC 25 WNW MHK 15 NE GCK 30
   SSW CAO 45 SSW LVS 25 SSE GNT 20 N INW 40 W GCN 65 WSW ELY 15 NW EKO
   30 SSE BYI 25 NE BYI 20 W SUN 25 SSW 27U 30 ENE DLN 55 SE LVM 25 E
   COD 25 SW SHR 25 NNW GCC 35 WSW Y22 35 NNW FAR 15 SSE INL ...CONT...
   50 W BUF MGW 15 SE EKN 20 ENE LYH 50 WSW RIC 30 SE RIC 35 SSW WAL
   ...CONT... 10 SSE CRE 30 NNW CAE 15 WSW HSS 40 SE CSV 10 SW ATL 20
   SE MCN SSI.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL/NRN
   PLAINS THROUGH UPPER MS VALLEY...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TX THROUGH THE LOWER
   MS VALLEY...
   
   ...ERN TX...LA SRN AR AND CNTRL THROUGH SRN MS...
   
   HURRICANE RITA IS FORECAST BY THE NHC TO CONTINUE A NNWWD TRACK ON
   SATURDAY. DUE TO THE SIZE OF THIS STORM...FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR
   PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS WILL PERSIST WELL E OF THE CENTER. GREATEST
   THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE WITH THE OUTER RAINBANDS
   N AND E OF THE CENTER FROM ERN TX EWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY
   AREA. ANY SURFACE HEATING THAT OCCURS BETWEEN THE CONVECTIVE BANDS
   WILL INCREASE DESTABILIZATION AND MAY LOCALLY ENHANCE THE THREAT
   DURING THE AFTERNOON.
   
   ...CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH UPPER MS VALLEY AREA...
   
   A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SEWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND INTO
   THE UPPER MS VALLEY. BY LATE AFTERNOON THE FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM
   NRN MN SWWD THROUGH ERN SD AND INTO WRN NEB. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
   CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY
   EARLY SATURDAY RESULTING IN VEERING OF THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET.
   ELEVATED STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY STILL
   BE IN PROGRESS FROM PARTS OF SERN SD INTO SRN MN OR NWRN IA BY 12Z
   SATURDAY. SLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL ADVECT RICHER LOW LEVEL
   MOISTURE NWD INTO THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
   MID 60S LIKELY ACROSS NEB AND PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY. MLCAPE
   FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON GIVEN
   SUFFICIENT SURFACE HEATING. THE WARM SECTOR MAY REMAIN CAPPED TO
   SURFACE BASED STORMS MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...APPROACH OF AN
   UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET WILL
   ENHANCE FORCING FOR ASCENT IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT BY LATE
   AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO STORMS REDEVELOPING
   ALONG OR JUST N OF THE FRONT WITH ACTIVITY SUBSEQUENTLY SPREADING
   SEWD. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR
   SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY WITH INITIAL DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY
   MAY EVOLVE INTO LINES AS IT SPREADS EWD THROUGH NEB. LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WIND SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ANY TORNADO THREAT
   APPEARS CONDITIONAL UPON ANY SURFACE BASED STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP
   ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE
   LOCALLY ENHANCED AND LCL HEIGHTS LOWER.
   
   
   ...OH VALLEY...
   
   SCATTERED STORMS MAY ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ALONG STALLED BOUNDARY OVER
   THE OH VALLEY WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
   AFTERNOON. ISOLATED STORMS COULD PRODUCE PRIMARILY STRONG WIND
   GUSTS. OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT MORE THAN 5% SEVERE
   PROBABILITIES.
   
   ..DIAL/GUYER.. 09/24/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z