Mesoscale Discussion 1712
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0345 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

   Areas affected...Eastern Wyoming into northwest Nebraska and
   southwest South Dakota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 262045Z - 262245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage should continue to increase across
   eastern Wyoming into far northwest Nebraska and southwest South
   Dakota through the late afternoon. The primary hazard with this
   convection will be sporadic severe wind gusts. Watch issuance is not
   expected.

   DISCUSSION...Recent GOES visible imagery shows a gradual build up
   and deepening of cumulus along a surface cold front across portions
   of eastern WY, northwest NE, and southwest SD, as well as within the
   terrain of the Black Hills. Additionally, new convective development
   is noted on an expanding cold pool emanating out of northern CO/far
   southeast WY. This activity has largely remained sub-severe thus
   far, likely owing to a combination of poor deep-layer shear and
   meager buoyancy within a well-mixed and relatively dry environment.
   However, increasing ascent ahead of a subtle mid-level impulse
   (translating eastward across southern WY) along with rapidly
   diminishing MLCIN will likely result in increased thunderstorm
   coverage along the front and outflow boundary in the next couple of
   hours (a few lightning flashes have already been noted with the
   shallow convection over the Black Hills). Mean storm motions and
   deep-layer shear vectors oriented largely along the front should
   foster storm interactions resulting in multicell clusters later this
   evening. Given the deeply-mixed boundary layer in place across the
   region, strong to severe downburst winds appear to be the
   predominant hazard. 25-30 knot mid-level flow may support some
   organization of deeper cells or more consolidated clusters, but
   convective outflow will likely limit the potential for long-lived,
   well-organized convection.

   ..Moore/Gleason.. 07/26/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...

   LAT...LON   42170274 41860299 41630311 41510324 41410347 41370364
               41360378 41420398 41520428 41720455 42020470 42350473
               43080473 43640459 44320397 44730325 44770282 44730232
               44620186 44320148 44060135 43690138 43300155 42660228
               42170274