Mesoscale Discussion 1261
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0134 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

   Areas affected...Eastern PA...NJ...NY Hudson Valley...Western
   MA..Western CT

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 141834Z - 142030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Ongoing cluster across central Pennsylvania is expected to
   persist, with additional development possible across the region this
   afternoon. Damaging gust and/or hail are possible with the strongest
   storms, and trends will be monitored for possible watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...A convective cluster continues to move eastward across
   central PA at around 30 kt. Clouds persist downstream of this
   cluster from eastern PA into NJ and the Hudson Valley, but some
   thinning has been noted across eastern PA, particularly southeast PA
   where temperatures are now in the low to mid 80s. There has been a
   corresponding increase in buoyancy across southeast PA, with some
   indications that the cluster may begin to progress a bit more
   southeastward into this region. Separate from the PA cluster,
   additional strengthening of the more cellular development across the
   Hudson Valley has also been noted as the large-scale forcing for
   ascent spreads into the region. 

   With buoyancy and shear both expected to remain modest, the overall
   severe coverage remains uncertain. The cluster in central PA
   recently produced a 40 kt gust, and given that the environment
   downstream is similar to its current environment and significant
   strengthening appears unlikely, this may indicate the gust strength
   to expected downstream. Shear is slightly stronger farther north, so
   there may be a greater chance for severe hail from the Hudson Valley
   eastward into western MA/CT. Convective trends will be monitored
   across the entire region to determine if coverage will be sufficient
   for watch issuance.

   ..Mosier/Gleason.. 06/14/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

   LAT...LON   40337893 41137725 42097521 42537296 41677264 39807469
               39707812 40337893