Mesoscale Discussion 1259
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1218 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

   Areas affected...Northeast VT...Northern/Central NH...ME

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 141718Z - 141915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are possible today from
   northeast Vermont and northern/central New Hampshire across much of
   Maine. Hail and damaging gusts are possible with the strongest
   storms, and trends will be monitored for possible watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows thunderstorms are
   beginning to develop along and ahead of the cold front progressing
   southeastward into the region. Development thus far has occurred
   just along the leading edge of the better large-scale forcing for
   ascent, coincident with where modest low-level convergence within
   the vicinity of a weak pre-frontal trough is augmenting the more
   synoptic lift. The downstream air mass is only modestly buoyant,
   with current mesoanalysis estimating MLCAPE around 500 J/kg. Heating
   has been limited thus far, but cloud cover is beginning to thin,
   suggesting additional heating may occur in the region between the
   warm conveyor and the surface cold front. Additional heating would
   boost buoyancy, with stronger updrafts then more likely. Moderate
   vertical shear is in place, with regional VADs recently sampling 40
   to 45 kt of 0-6 km bulk shear. 

   Given the linear forcing and modest buoyancy, a linear multicellular
   mode will likely be the primary storm mode. However, vertical shear
   is strong enough to support supercell structures within any deeper,
   more sustained updrafts. Additionally, with the primary front still
   west of the region, multiple rounds of development along axes of
   low-level convergence are possible. Both hail and/damaging gusts are
   possible, but the hail threat will likely be confined to the more
   discrete storms. Overall severe coverage is uncertain, so convective
   trends will be monitored closely for potential watch issuance.

   ..Mosier/Gleason.. 06/14/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...

   LAT...LON   44956828 44306911 44056956 43787022 43637094 43617219
               44157248 45017163 46247037 47056943 47006806 46106788
               44956828