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Mesoscale Discussion 1024 |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1024
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0636 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024
Areas affected...North/Central TX through te TX Hill Country
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 336...
Valid 272336Z - 280100Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 336
continues.
SUMMARY...Threat for very large hail up to 3" in diameter and severe
gusts around 60-70 mph will continue from north/central Texas into
the Texas Hill Country.
DISCUSSION...Strong to severe thunderstorms continue to develop
within the very warm and moist airmass that exists from the TX Hill
Country north and eastward across the remainder of the state.
Large-scale ascent across the region remains fairly modest, with the
low-level moisture convergence providing the primary mechanism for
convective initiation. In addition to robust buoyancy, strong
vertical shear exists over the region as well, with long hodographs
favoring splitting storms. The overall environment supports the
persistence of both left and right splits, with storm interactions
dictating updraft survival. This is particularly true across central
TX, where greater storm coverage exists, likely a result of subtle
large-scale ascent aiding overall convective initiation and
maturation.
The very strong buoyancy and shear will continue to support the
potential for very large hail up to 3" in diameter across the entire
region. Steep low-level lapse rates will also support the
development of strong downbursts capable of producing severe gusts
around 60-70 mph. Weak surface winds are expected to keep the
tornado threat low, although non-zero given the supercellular storm
mode.
..Mosier.. 05/27/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...
LAT...LON 31229980 33229773 33209526 31779580 28519940 29390112
31229980
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