Mesoscale Discussion 0877
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0355 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

   Areas affected...Parts of central and northern Arkansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 212055Z - 212300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Large hail and isolated damaging winds are possible with
   elevated thunderstorms moving into west-central/north-central
   Arkansas. The need for a watch in the short term is uncertain.

   DISCUSSION...Elevated thunderstorms have had a recent increase in
   intensity. While the environment ahead of this activity continues to
   destabilize slowly, it is not clear whether this activity will be
   able to become surface based in the near future. Strong effective
   shear and sufficient buoyancy will promote some risk of large hail
   as well as isolated strong/damaging winds. Convective trends will
   continue to be monitored as the need for a watch is not certain in
   the short term.

   ..Wendt/Guyer.. 05/21/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...LZK...SGF...TSA...

   LAT...LON   36019340 36399246 36579186 36589130 36449085 35699129
               34979242 34419332 34469384 34859407 36019340