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Mesoscale Discussion 831 |
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Mesoscale Discussion 0831
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0109 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
Areas affected...Parts of the central/northern High Plains
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 191809Z - 192015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Severe storms capable of producing severe gusts and hail
will be possible later this afternoon. Watch issuance is likely.
DISCUSSION...Diurnal heating of a modestly moist environment is
underway across the central/northern High Plains vicinity, with
recent attempts at high-based storm development already noted across
the NE Panhandle. Continued heating will support MLCAPE rising to
near/above 1000 J/kg across parts of the region later this
afternoon, along with decreasing CINH. Scattered thunderstorm
development is expected with time as a shortwave trough currently
over the northern Rockies approaches the region.
Deep-layer shear will generally be supportive of organized
convection, especially with northward extent across SD into far
southern ND. Initial development could evolve into a few supercells
with a threat of large hail and localized severe gusts. With time,
consolidating outflows within a relatively warm and well-mixed
environment could support some upscale growth and an increasing
severe-wind threat. Watch issuance is likely for parts of this
region later this afternoon.
..Dean/Hart.. 05/19/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 41050399 42330388 44350340 45520223 46250124 46369999
43870038 41100090 39670107 39640228 41050399
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