Mesoscale Discussion 0711
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0528 PM CDT Wed May 08 2024

   Areas affected...Central Texas...eastern Oklahoma...northwest
   Arkansas

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 208...210...

   Valid 082228Z - 090030Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 208, 210 continues.

   SUMMARY...Storm development looks increasingly likely near and north
   of the DFW metro. The primary risk will be very large hail and
   severe wind gusts, though a tornado is also possible.

   DISCUSSION...Storm development in northeastern Oklahoma is showing
   some signs of back-building to the south. In central Texas, an
   isolated supercell is ongoing southwest of Waco. Overall, the
   expectation is for there to be an increase in storm coverage over
   the next 1-2 hours. The most likely area for this to occur, given
   visible satellite trends, is from the DFW metro northward into parts
   of south-central Oklahoma. Cumulus have shown increasing signs of
   vertical development and initiation seems likely in the near future.
   Very large buoyancy, 45-55 kts of effective shear, and steep
   mid-level lapse rates will promote a risk for very large hail (2-4.5
   inches) and severe wind gusts. The tornado threat is a little less
   clear given the weak low-level shear, but MLCAPE values of greater
   than 3500 J/kg will allow for ample stretching of vorticity along
   the boundary. Storms should remain discrete at least for a period.
   The very large MLCAPE values suggest there could be some stronger
   downdrafts that may lead to some upscale growth into a cluster that
   would propagate into the buoyancy axis in northeast Texas/southeast
   Oklahoma.

   ..Wendt.. 05/08/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...EWX...

   LAT...LON   31359813 32899735 35089617 36199547 36509515 36409439
               36199404 35599368 35119394 31699579 30899645 30569749
               30709809 31359813