Mesoscale Discussion 0590
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0611 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

   Areas affected...Portions of western North Texas into southwest
   Oklahoma

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 182...

   Valid 282311Z - 290030Z

   CORRECTED FOR SPELLING ERROR

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 182 continues.

   SUMMARY...Initial supercells will pose mainly a risk of very large
   hail and locally severe wind gusts. The tornado risk will increase
   into the evening as the low-level jet strengthens (00-01Z time
   frame).

   DISCUSSION...Initial discrete supercell has developed immediately
   south of the Red River in western North TX, where convergence is
   maximized near the dryline amid an uncapped air mass (per 21Z
   special NSSL sounding from Quanah, TX). Strong surface-based
   instability (3000 J/kg MLCAPE), driven by a warm/moist boundary
   layer beneath very steep midlevel lapse rates, will favor continued
   rapid updraft intensification. Around 50 kt of effective shear
   oriented oblique to the low-level convergence will support
   discrete/semi-discrete supercells. The initial hodograph (sampled by
   FDR VWP) depicts weak winds in the 1-2-km AGL layer, despite
   favorable deep-layer shear for supercells. This should initially
   favor some splitting supercells with a risk of very large hail.
   However, as the low-level jet rapidly increases, storms should
   intensify into dominant right-movers with an increasing supercell
   tornado risk. Current indications are that this evolution will occur
   in the 00-01Z time frame. The strong buoyancy, discrete/
   semi-discrete mode, and increasing streamwise vorticity (around 400
   m2/s2 effective SRH), will support a strong/intense tornado threat.

   ..Weinman.. 04/28/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...

   LAT...LON   34099985 34499972 34979935 35139892 35119860 34949830
               34619826 33899867 33669906 33649952 33809982 34099985 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN