Mesoscale Discussion 0577
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0349 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025

   Areas affected...parts of nw TX into the TX Pnhdl

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 272049Z - 272245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Probabilities for thunderstorm development appear low, but
   may not be negligible late this afternoon into early evening, with
   the environment conditionally supportive of supercells posing a risk
   for large hail and tornadoes.  If and when it becomes more certain
   that storms will form, a severe weather watch will probably be
   needed.

   DISCUSSION...Boundary-layer moisture characterized by lower/mid 60s
   surface dew points is being maintained across the Lubbock through
   Amarillo vicinities, beneath a deep warm elevated mixed-layer based
   between 850-700 mb, just east of a dryline which may mix only slowly
   northeastward/eastward into early evening.  This appears to be
   contributing to strong potential instability (3000+ J/kg), beneath
   moderate to strong southwesterly mid/upper flow (including 40-70+ kt
   in the 500-300 mb layer), and an environment conditionally
   supportive of intense supercells.

   Perhaps due to the warm/dry air at mid-levels, and weak large-scale
   forcing for ascent, convection allowing guidance, in particular,
   continues to indicate generally low potential for thunderstorm
   initiation through early evening.  However, at least attempts at
   deepening convective development are evident to the west of the
   dryline, and objective analysis indicates a possible secondary
   maximum in dryline convergence developing near/north of Lubbock
   toward areas west of Amarillo.   

   Of particular concern, if a sustained storm does develop during the
   next couple of hours, there appears potential for rapid
   intensification while propagating across the dryline.  Toward
   23-00Z, strengthening south-southeasterly low-level flow (in excess
   of 30 kt around 850 mb) may contribute to enlarging clockwise curved
   low-level hodographs increasingly supportive of potential for
   tornadoes, in addition to large, potentially damaging hail.

   ..Kerr/Smith.. 04/27/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

   LAT...LON   35980219 34140054 33100020 32670120 33720184 33810231
               34340246 34960261 35980219 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN