Mesoscale Discussion 0523
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1057 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

   Areas affected...portions of northwestern Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 159...160...

   Valid 230357Z - 230530Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 159, 160
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe gusts may accompany an organized MCS over the next
   few hours.

   DISCUSSION...An MCS has organized a couple of hours ago, and the
   KCDS ASOS measured a southeasterly gust of 47 kts within the
   trailing precipitation region, indicating that a localized severe
   gust threat may be increasing. This is in agreement with the last
   several runs of Warn-on-forecast, which has depicted a severe wind
   swath with this MCS along/near the Red River. Given residual MLCAPE
   around 2000 J/kg and increasing WAA with a strengthening nocturnal
   low-level jet, this MCS may persist, perhaps with severe gusts for
   at least a few more hours. Given the approaching expiration time of
   the ongoing severe thunderstorm watches, a downstream watch may be
   needed pending favorable convective trends against increasing
   MLCINH.

   ..Squitieri.. 04/23/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

   LAT...LON   33870160 34440075 34619957 34189851 33549832 33139844
               32899918 32939998 33060065 33160093 33420148 33870160 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN