Mesoscale Discussion 0510
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1144 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

   Areas affected...east Arkansas...northwest Tennessee...far west
   Kentucky...southeast Illinois...and southwest Indiana

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 156...158...

   Valid 210444Z - 210615Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 156, 158 continues.

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to slowly move east overnight.
   The tornado threat in Arkansas has sufficiently diminished to allow
   Tornado Watch #156 to expire at 12 AM CDT. Strong low-level flow may
   support a brief tornado or severe wind gust across Tornado Watch
   #158.

   DISCUSSION...A long-lived, mixed-mode convective line continues to
   move east across Arkansas, Missouri, and Illinois late this evening.
   Despite a favorable kinematic environment (0-1 km shear of 40-50
   knots and 0-1 km SRH between 300-500 m2/s2), increasing convective
   inhibition and decreasing CAPE have resulted in a general decreasing
   trend in convective intensity. With the upper-/mid-level forcing
   moving farther away, this general decrease in intensity is expected
   to continue. 

   Given the overall decrease in intensity, especially across Arkansas,
   Tornado Watch #156 will be allowed to expire at 12 AM CDT. Farther
   east/north in Tornado Watch #158, the strength of the kinematic
   environment may support a brief tornado or wind gust, despite the
   increasingly hostile thermodynamic environment.

   ..Marsh.. 04/21/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...JAN...LSX...LZK...

   LAT...LON   33869233 36578960 37468906 39148903 38748705 36458803
               34459015 33279176 33869233 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN