Mesoscale Discussion 0489
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0735 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

   Areas affected...portions of northern Texas into far southern
   Oklahoma

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 149...

   Valid 200035Z - 200130Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 149 continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 149. A
   locally greater tornado risk exists with a dominate, semi-discrete
   supercell approaching the Red River. A strong tornado is possible.

   DISCUSSION...Storms continue to increase in intensity along the Red
   River. One supercell in particular has a history of producing at
   least a couple of tornadoes, and this storm continues to progress
   northeastward along a diffuse baroclinic boundary, with mid to upper
   60s F surface dewpoints characterizing both sides of the boundary.
   As such, this storm is expected to continue ingesting buoyant,
   likely streamwise-vorticity-rich inflow given the continued
   intensification of the preceding southerly LLJ. The FWD 00Z observed
   sounding depicts an unstable troposphere and a large, curved
   hodograph, and over 400 m2/s2 effective SRH. Tornado potential
   should continue to some degree with the supercell, especially as
   this storm absorbs preceding showers/storms, and then experiences
   unimpeded inflow. Some of the latest Warn-on-Forecast guidance also
   suggest that this storm should persist with strong rotation for at
   least 1-2 more hours. Given the high degree of storm organization
   and preceding strong ambient low-level shear, a strong tornado
   cannot be ruled out.

   ..Squitieri.. 04/20/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   33469798 33879772 34239728 34369689 34259660 33979654
               33699678 33489734 33409775 33469798 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN