Mesoscale Discussion 0432
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0213 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025

   Areas affected...parts of the FL PNHDL...sern AL...swrn GA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 070713Z - 070945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...The potential for briefly intensifying storms posing the
   risk for a tornado or locally strong surface gusts likely will
   continue into the 3-5 AM CDT time frame.  The risk still appears low
   and isolated enough that a severe weather watch is not necessary,
   but trends are being monitored.

   DISCUSSION...There has been little change during the past few hours,
   despite the continuing presence of capping layers aloft, convection
   persists along a slow moving front and a pre-frontal wind confluence
   zone slowly shifting eastward across southeastern Alabama and the
   western Florida Panhandle.  There remain continuing attempts at more
   discrete deep convective development ahead of the low-level
   confluence zone, which currently appears to narrowly precede the
   surface front across areas near/west of Fort Walton Beach, before
   intersection the front (or conglomerate outflow) near/northeast of
   Crestview.

   Embedded within a narrow pre-frontal plume of seasonably moist
   boundary-layer air (including surface dew points around 70 F, and
   characterized by CAPE up to around 1000 J/kg), and strong shear
   (including sizable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs beneath
   30-40 kt southerly flow around 850 mb), weak rotation remains
   evident within cells along and ahead of the confluent zone.  It
   appears that this may be coinciding with a weak frontal wave
   developing inland, northeastward across southeastern Alabama, during
   the next few hours.  And potential for one or two of these vortices
   to briefly intensify to tornadic strength probably will continue
   across the Panama City FL and Dothan AL into Albany GA vicinities
   through 09-11Z.

   ..Kerr/Mosier.. 04/07/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

   LAT...LON   29788721 31098612 31318566 31808492 31178478 29918549
               29418643 29788721 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN