Mesoscale Discussion 0311
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0802 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

   Areas affected...Far Northeast Arkansas...Western and Middle
   Tennessee...Western Kentucky

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 72...76...

   Valid 310102Z - 310300Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 72, 76 continues.

   SUMMARY...A severe threat will likely develop this evening across
   western and middle Tennessee northward into western and central
   Kentucky. Weather watch issuance will likely be needed across the
   region soon.

   DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows a well-developed
   linear MCS from northeast Arkansas northeastward into far western
   Kentucky. Ahead of the MCS, a moderately unstable airmass is
   present, with the RAP showing MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range.
   The MCS is located near the exit region of a 60 to 70 knot mid-level
   jet, which is providing favorable large-scale ascent and strong
   deep-layer shear supportive of severe storms. The latest WSR-88D VWP
   at Hopkinsville, Kentucky is sampling the nose of the jet, with 0-6
   km shear near 60 knots. The VWP also has strong directional shear in
   the lowest 2 km AGL. This shear environment will be favorable for
   supercells, embedded in the line or with isolated storms ahead of
   the line. Supercells will be accompanied by a threat for large hail
   and wind damage. Severe wind gusts will also be possible along the
   leading edge of the faster moving line segments. The stronger parts
   of the line could produce wind gusts above 70 mph. Supercells that
   become particularly intense and remain discrete could have tornado
   potential as well.

   ..Broyles.. 03/31/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

   LAT...LON   35168730 35858608 36598537 37038517 37368526 37608573
               37718669 37658744 37328812 36468950 35909021 35519033
               35249022 35038991 34988921 34968826 35168730 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN