Mesoscale Discussion 0292
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0203 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

   Areas affected...southwest Kansas across the eastern Oklahoma and
   Texas Panhandles...western Oklahoma and northwest Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 241903Z - 242100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered storms are likely to form along a dryline this
   afternoon, and several may become severe. The primary risk will be
   from large hail, though locally damaging gusts or a brief tornado
   will also be possible.

   DISCUSSION...Visible imagery shows substantial high-based convection
   forming near and behind the dryline, which currently extends from
   far southwest KS across the TX Panhandle and South Plains. This area
   is within a deep-layer steep lapse rate plume. 

   Ahead of the dryline, clearing and heating are occurring, which will
   help destabilize the air mass. However, moisture is currently
   limited with only 40s to lower 50s F dewpoints in general.

   As the dryline continues to move rapidly east, a north-south broken
   line of storms is forecast to form, with a few robust cells
   producing hail. The instability axis is forecast to remain
   relatively narrow, especially near the OK/TX portion of the dryline
   initially. With time, moisture advection may result in a more
   favorable area for supercells later today/evening into northwest TX,
   as surface observations indicate increasing dewpoints. The strong
   deep-layer shear combined with steep lapse rates will favor hail
   across the entire area, with any brief tornado threat limited to the
   narrow uncapped area along the dryline. Given the strong flow aloft
   over OK and TX, storms may move off the dryline rather quickly,
   perhaps becoming elevated farther east. However, somewhat weaker
   flow over KS, as well as a wider warm sector, could sustain a
   supercell or two with hail and brief tornado risk over a relatively
   wider area.

   ..Jewell/Hart.. 03/24/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

   LAT...LON   32580108 33430086 34170077 34970068 36010066 36610084
               37250114 37670103 38060081 38530017 38569957 38299915
               37419888 35889845 35819845 35009842 33909873 33269903
               32799964 32590007 32580108