Mesoscale Discussion 0266
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0343 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of western OR/WA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 262043Z - 262245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Supercell development is possible later this afternoon.
   Large hail, isolated severe gusts, and perhaps a tornado or two will
   all be possible. Watch issuance is likely.

   DISCUSSION...Seasonably strong diurnal heating is underway across
   western OR into southwest WA early this afternoon, with temperatures
   expected to approach or exceed record highs in some areas. The 18Z
   soundings from MFR and OTX depict steep lapse rates within the
   850-600 mb layer, and deep-layer wind profiles supportive of
   supercells. Moisture was lacking within these soundings, but surface
   observations suggest somewhat more favorable moisture into parts of
   western OR/WA, with dewpoints from the upper 40s to 50s F. Continued
   heating will support weak to moderate destabilization with time to
   the west of the Cascades, with SBCAPE potentially increasing to
   near/above 1000 J/kg by late afternoon. 

   As an intense deep-layer cyclone well offshore of OR/WA moves
   east-northeastward this afternoon, a strong mid/upper-level jet will
   overspread the Pacific Northwest, further strengthening deep-layer
   shear across the region. Isolated storms may initially develop near
   the coastal ranges and/or the western slopes of the Cascades, with
   increasing large-scale ascent supporting maintenance of storms as
   they spread north-northeastward with time. 

   Favorable deep-layer shear will support development of a few
   supercells with time. Hail to the size of golf balls or larger may
   become the most prominent hazard, given the presence of elongated
   hodographs, moderate buoyancy, and rather cold temperatures aloft. 
   Any sustained supercell could also pose some tornado threat,
   especially where low-level winds are locally backed due to terrain
   or storm-scale influences. Isolated strong to severe gusts may also
   accompany the strongest cells/clusters. A watch will likely be
   needed once storm initiation appears imminent.

   ..Dean/Smith.. 03/26/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PDT...MFR...SEW...PQR...

   LAT...LON   43312382 46132352 47112314 47712237 47672153 47052134
               45492128 44312153 43612192 43032276 43312382 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN