Mesoscale Discussion 0190
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0407 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024

   Areas affected...eastern Texas into parts of Arkansas and Louisiana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 051007Z - 051230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered storms will persist this morning from eastern
   Texas into western Arkansas, southeast Oklahoma, and western
   Louisiana. Sporadic severe hail will remain possible with the
   stronger cells, but coverage and severity does not warrant a watch.

   DISCUSSION...A plume of mid to upper 60s F dewpoints is in place
   over the region, ahead of a surface trough extending from
   south-central MO across southeast OK and into northern TX. Although
   low-level winds and surface convergence are relatively weak, the
   influence of a midlevel shortwave is resulting in sufficient lift to
   support development.

   Various clusters of cells are ongoing from eastern TX into AR, with
   weaker development even farther north. However, the greatest threat
   of hail over 1.00" diameter over the next several hours should be
   near the instability axis from southeast OK and the Arklatex
   southward, where MUCAPE is over 2000 J/kg.

   Lack of deep-layer shear is likely minimizing the severe risk to an
   extent, with 500 mb winds only around 25 kt where the storms are
   ongoing. Stronger speeds do exist farther south along the TX Coast
   and toward southern LA, currently removed from the zone of ascent.
   As such, the threat of sporadic, short-lived hail cores is forecast
   to persist through the morning, shifting slowly east with the
   midlevel wave. Cells over southern areas may experience a more
   favorable shear environment, and an isolated hail report to around
   1.75" cannot be ruled out.

   ..Jewell/Edwards.. 03/05/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...LCH...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   30909291 30569347 30529417 30619483 30849531 31259564
               32139611 32739625 33569634 34129603 34589553 34759487
               34709408 34429339 34049305 32519273 32069262 31409273
               30909291