Mesoscale Discussion 0144
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0513 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2024

   Areas affected...2 Eastern New York

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 152313Z - 160315Z

   SUMMARY...A band of moderate to heavy snow across central New York
   will likely spread east into eastern New York over the next few
   hours.

   DISCUSSION...Over the past 1-2 hours, a fairly well organized snow
   band has become established over central NY state based on composite
   reflectivity and water-vapor trends. Although recent CAMs have
   depicted the evolution of this band, the overall intensity appears
   to be stronger than initially suggested by CAM output when compared
   to observed visibility reductions (1/2 to 1/4 mile from Syracuse to
   Utica, NY) and regional web cams. Pockets of snowfall rates
   approaching 1 inch/hour appear probable within the band based on
   these observations, and should persist for the next 1-3 hours as the
   band spreads across eastern NY. After around 02 UTC, the persistence
   and intensity of this band becomes less certain as frontogenesis
   within the 850-700 mb layer abates. However, persistent ascent
   within the left-exit region of an approaching mid-level jet
   overlapped with a broad warm frontal zone may allow for pockets of
   moderate to heavy snowfall rates to persist after 02 UTC into the
   New England region.

   ..Moore.. 02/15/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...BUF...

   LAT...LON   42117490 43647564 43897600 44147601 44447582 44987489
               44997380 44977349 44797330 44447328 42937323 42517335
               42177345 41887365 41647369 41527391 41427418 41477448
               41617462 41917477 42117490