Mesoscale Discussion 0132
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0214 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024

   Areas affected...Portions of far eastern Mississippi and
   southwestern Alabama

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 112014Z - 112145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A strong/severe storm or two is possible this afternoon.
   Large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two could occur. A
   watch is uncertain in the short term, but convective trends will be
   monitored.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have steadily increased in coverage and
   intensity along surface boundary in southern Alabama. While cooler
   temperatures and weaker mid-level lapse rates this far east have
   limited buoyancy, slow warming and moistening from the south has
   allowed MLCAPE to rise to 500 to near 1000 J/kg. The strongest
   storms in this cluster are most likely to remain along the
   southern/southwestern flank with access to more unstable inflow.
   Strong shear will mean the strongest storms will be supercells
   capable of large hail and damaging winds. The KMOB VAD does show
   modest low-level veering. Furthermore, low-level winds are forecast
   to increase later this afternoon/evening. A tornado or two would be
   possible with the strongest storms. A watch is uncertain in the
   short term, but may become needed if coverage in the warm sector
   increases.

   ..Wendt/Thompson.. 02/11/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...

   LAT...LON   31288859 31588870 31868860 32168828 32468726 32368660
               32128648 31658668 31128770 31288859